Monday, September 28, 2020

Timing  the  Market 



We had the market making another attempt to rally to day as a follow thru action from Friday.  Once again the biggest negative was the volume.  We need the institutions to give us a signal with their high purchasing power.  They account for over 70% of the the daily trading volume in the market.  This is a critical time for retail investors and traders to monitor their stock list.  I published a list of 40 stocks in my blog post yesterday that were showing signs of institutional support.  25 of those stocks out performed the  $QQQ  today.  This brings out the conviction that I have a list of successful leading stocks that institutions are investing in.  Increased volume from today with the indexes $SPY  and  $QQQ  rising convincingly later this week would produce a  "Follow Thru"  day.  That is the timing signal that we look for to start initiating small starter positions in the leading stocks.


Here is a partial of the post that was published on May 3rd, describing the importance of acting decisively on a  "Follow Thru"  day.  The last successful  "Follow Thru"  day of April 2nd allowed the  $QQQ  to attain over +60%  within 21 weeks.  Be prepared to take advantage of such timing signal.



Passive   Investing   With   $QQQ

(Partial repost of the blog post of May 3rd)


"Write down exactly how you want to see your world, and visualize it. You have power in your thoughts. "

Bob Proctor (Expert in Law of Attraction)


"Freedom to be your best means nothing unless you're willing to do your best".

Colin Powell (Secretary of State)



We are experiencing a very successful  "Follow Thru"  day  that we had with the  $SPY  on April 2nd, followed by another one with the  $NASDAQ  on April 6th.  March was a horrible month.  We were bombarded with the news in the media about the pandemic.  If you paid attention to the news, you would have thought that the world was coming to an end.  Those that distanced themselves from interacting on social media with every post on the pandemic, were most likely alert when the market took a hold within 10 days of reaching an all time low on March 23rd.  We were all under lock down at that time and afraid to step out the door.  Market in the mean time was flashing an opportunity for the retail traders to start stepping in gradually in the market.


Did you miss this opportunity ?



Fast forward 10 days from the low of March 23rd and suddenly we had a successful rally attempt by the 2 indexes - $SPY  and $NASDAQ.  Lot of retail investors were caught off guard and couldn't believe that the market was taking off again.  Leading growth stock index  $QQQ  had fallen off almost  -35% (1% on an average every day for 35 days).  This was a fast and furious waterfall decline of these 2 indexes.  Lot of investors doubted the  "Follow Thru"  day  - including myself.  Mr. William O'Neil (Founder of Investors Business Daily) has a rule which says:

You must buy something on a Follow Thru day  


When in doubt, it would be a good idea to perhaps start out with a passive investment style of investing in  $QQQ  on  "Follow Thru"  day.  It's a simple strategy as explained below:

  • Invest in  $QQQ  at market open the very next day that IBD (Investor's Business Daily) declares a  "Follow Thru"  day.
  • Reduce it to 1/2 position when IBD declares  'Market Under Pressure'
  • Close out the entire position when IBD declares  'Market in Correction'

 This strategy is explained in details on page  A14  of the current May 4th  edition of IBD print and digital newspaper. 


If You had followed this strategy, the performance results to date from the  April 3rd are:

  1. $SPY    ... +12.77% (General Market Performance)
  2. $QQQ   ... +12.99% (Growth Stock Index Performance)
  3. $XLK    ... +13.98% (Leading Sector Performance)


Happy Trading!

AMIN


  

1 comment:

  1. The rest of the story:

    For those that might know what the definition of a Follow-Through Day (FTD) is

    It occurs when at least one of the major indexes makes a big percentage gain in higher volume. There are two requirements. (1) volume requirement - only need a heavier volume than the previous day. (2) a percentage requirement based on volatility. (here volatility is defined as the average percentage gain of the up days over the prior 200 days).If volatility is less than or equal to 0.4%, the follow-through must close up 0.7% or higher; if volatility is >/= to 0.4% and /= 0.55% and /= 1.00%, follow-through must close up 1.25% or higher.

    Currently 1.00% is used for the percentage requirement.

    ReplyDelete

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