Sunday, July 15, 2018

Timing  the  Market



$TWLO  position was taken on July 6th at $56.87 at the Market open.  IBD (Investors Business Daily) data identified   "Uptrend Resumes"  on July 5th after the indexex rallied from its lows of June 27th.  IBD data suggests that most good Growth Stocks will rise rapidly and twice as fast as the  $SPY  (general market performance) within days.  That is why  Mr. William J O'Neil (Founder of IBD) has a rule that 

"One Must Buy Something on A Follow Thru Day"


The Growth Stock that one must buy at this time, should not only be the one that is fundamentally sound but technically sound as well.  It has to be the leading stock in a leading sector.  $TWLO had appeared as one of the 15 stocks on My Watch List on June 17th blog post.  I had identified  $55.20  as the resistance point.  Market began correcting the last two weeks in June.  It was not the right time to initiate a position on this stock.  July 6th was the ideal time to take the position because the market had resumed its uptrend.  Currently its up  +7. 50%   as compared to the  $SPY   which is up  +3.74%   in the last 6 sessions.  

My Stock  $TWLO  Outperformed the  $SPY  by 2 Times



$TWLO  Story



This was an IPO in Sept 2016.  Most growth stocks that outperform the market are the ones that were recent IPO's in the last 15 years.  For the last several months, the leading group of stocks has been in the enterprize software group.  $BZUN, $CRM, $NOW, ADBE and $ULTI are also in the same group.  They all have risen  +50%  to  +80%  in the last 7 months.  Institutions are obviously favouring this group.  They generally buy all the leading stocks in that group when they make a commitment to buy the leading group.   They leave a tell tale sign of increasing volume and price gap ups during earnings report.  $TWLO did exactly that.   Here are some data to show that:

1.   Earnings on Feb 13th, price went p from  $26.44  to  $42.06 (+60%) within 5 weeks.
2.   Earnings on May 8th, the price went up from  $44.35  to  $61.61 (+39%) within 6 weeks.
3.   Trading volume on earnings day had increased from  4  times to  6  times the daily average trading volume.


$TWLO is scheduled to report the next earnings in 3 weeks.  The next resistance line is  $70.96.  The stock had reached this price point on  Sept 28th 2016, within less than 4 weeks after the IPO.  Within 5 weeks after reaching an all time high of   $70.96,   it lost half its value down to  $31  price level.  The stock changed its character and once again it became the favourite of the institutions during Feb 13th earnings report.





Mentoring  Program


Our schedule for mentoring new students is full for July and August.  I am however opening up 3 slots on a first come first serve basis for the month of August.  Summer time is the time to learn and sharpen your skills.  Traditionally October through January are the best performing months in the market.  Secure your spot now before those slots fill up.  Leading index  $QQQ  is already a whopping  + 3.87%   in the last 6 sessions since July 5th when the market Resumed its Uptrend.  

Is your portfolio performing better that the leading  $QQQ  index?  If its not than you are falling behind.  Don't procrastinate.  $QQQ  is  + 82%  (2 years and 5 months) since the February 11th lows in 2016.

Would you like to learn:

  • How to select the winning stocks like  $ABMD  and  $NFLX  that have gained + 113%  year to date?  
  • How to Time the market with    'Follow Thru'  Days?
  • How to scale into the stocks as the stock continues to profit?
  • How to scale out of the stocks during market correction ?

Schedule a  FREE  30 minutes of  'Discovery Call'  with us and let us help you profit in the market.  Don't continue to lose money in the market and fail to out perform the market.  Let us show you how to look for Growth Stocks and how best to profit from it.


Happy Trading!



Amin











Sunday, July 8, 2018

Market  Outlook


Market conditions have improved dramatically since Thursday June 28th.  Market is very efficient and all the news you hear on a daily basis about the North Korean rocket man, tariffs, interest rate hikes by the central banks of US/Euro Zone/Japan or the disruption of oil supplies and immigration reforms or the knee jerk reaction with every tweet that Mr. Trump discharges is all priced in with every stock.  I have often said that the market does not have any political bias or leanings towards any religion.  Markets don't really care for your opinions or your prayers either.  It is best to tune out all the noise in the market and just look at the data to guide your decisions.  Paying too much attention to every tick in the market and looking over your positions too closely on the computer is futile.  I can assure you, that will not move the stock and will only get you frustrated. 


Currently the  'Market is in a Confirmed Uptrend'  as of Friday July 6th.  We have had a rally last several days and the leading index $QQQ  has punched through the resistance of the 50 day sma(simple moving average) line.  It has risen above the 20 day ema(exponential moving average) and is currently sitting atop the 8 day ema.  There is strength exhibited in the Growth Stocks.  $NASDAQ  is up  +11%  year to date.  Mexico is also up  + 2.3%.  Major economies of the world - Euro Zone, Japan, South Korea, China, India, Brazil and South Africa are all in negative territory so far this year.  


July performance with  $SPY (proxy for annual performance of the general market)  on an average is  + 0.32%  looking over the data for the past 50 years.  Last year however  $SPY  was  + 6.30%  from July 6th lows within 3 weeks.  Growth stocks will rise up rapidly within a couple of weeks when the market goes into a confirmed uptrend.  It is not unusual for them to perform 2 to 2.5 times as fast as the  $SPY  does when the market pulse changes to  'Market in a Confirmed Uptrend'.   

Do you have your Stock Watch List ready to take advantage of the improved market conditions? 


Performance  of  My  15  Stocks 


I had identified 15 stocks that were leading the market as of June 15th.  Every weekend I will look over at least 150 stocks to refine my Stock Watch List.  As a Retail Growth Stock investor and a trader, one should focus on the leading stocks in the leading sector.  When the market conditions improve like the way they have as of last Friday, one should start dipping their toes in the market with small positions in several leading stocks.  Leading stocks with good fundamentals and good technical charts will rapidly rise in the first couple of weeks.  

Here are the results of the performance of my 15 stocks since they came on My Stock Watch List 3 weeks ago.  For comparison purposes, I am also posting the performance of the 3 indexex that I monitor for the same time period:

Indexes:
  1. $DJI       ... - 2.52%
  2. $SPY     ... - 0.62%
  3. $QQQ    ... + 0.77%  (Leading Index)

15 Stocks:
  1. $AAXN    ...  + 2.42%
  2. $ABMD    ...  - 9.06%
  3. $BCOR    ...  + 5.61%
  4. $CRC      ...  + 27.41%
  5. $FIVE     ...   - 1.11%
  6. $INGN    ...   + 4.50%
  7. $SHAK    ...  - 1.64%
  8. $SIVB     ...   - 6.46%
  9. $TCMD    ... + 1.67%
  10. $THC      ...  + 2.48%
  11. $TTD       ... + 4.31%
  12. $TTGT     ... + 7.60%
  13. $TWLO   ...  - 2.47%
  14. $WWE     ... + 22.36%
  15. $ZTO       ... + 7.04%

Average performance  (10 winner and 5 losers) was  + 64.46% in the last  4.5  weeks.  (+ 4.34% average per stock)
My stocks outperformed the leading index $QQQ by 5.64 times. 




Mentoring  Program


Our schedule for mentoring new students is full for July and August.  I am however opening up a few slots on a first come first serve basis for the month of August.  Summer time is the time to learn and sharpen your skills.  Traditionally October through January are the best performing months in the market.  Secure your spot now before those slots fill up.  Leading index  $QQQ  is already a whopping  + 12.74%  year to date. 

Is your portfolio performing better that the leading  $QQQ  index?  If its not than you are falling behind.  Don't procrastinate.  $QQQ  is  + 82%  (2 years and 5 months) since the February 11th lows in 2016.

Would you like to learn:

  • How to select the winning stocks like  $ABMD  and  $NFLX  that have gained + 113%  year to date?  
  • How to Time the market with    'Follow Thru'  Days?
  • How to scale into the stocks as the stock continues to profit?
  • How to scale out of the stocks during market correction ?

Schedule a  FREE  30 minutes of  'Discovery Call'  with us and let us help you profit in the market.  Don't continue to lose money in the market and fail to out perform the market.  Let us show you how to look for Growth Stocks and how best to profit from it.


Happy Trading!



Amin



Sunday, July 1, 2018

Follow  Thru  Days


According to Mr. William J. O'Neil (Founder of Investor's Business Daily)

"You must buy something on a  'Follow Thru'  Day"

That is How You Time The Market. 

You won't hear this on CNBC or FOX or Bloomberg TV.  You don't hear the hedge fund managers or professional money managers ever say this.  Do you ever wonder why that is?  Professional money managers are expected to have all of their monies invested fully in the stock market, even when the stock market plunges.  We as retail investors are much more nimble and we can quickly go into CASH when the market goes into a correction.  We can also quickly get into the market when the market gives us a signal to enter on a   'Follow Thru'  day. 


In 2018, we have had 3  'Follow Thru'  days.  Stocks rapidly break out on such days and they rise up +10% to +20%  within a few sessions.  If you do not pull the trigger on such days than you would quickly fall behind and be tempted to chase the stock beyond its critical buy zone.  Market will begin showing distribution days (institutional selling) within a few sessions usually and the major indexes will begin to lose momentum.  The last  'Follow Thru'  day we had was on May 10th (32 sessions ago) and currently we have 11 distribution days between the  $SPY  and the   $NASDAQ.  IBD (Investor's Business Daily)  has called the  "Market Under Pressure"  as of Wednesday June 27th.  The last 2 days we had up days and the  $SPY  and  $QQQ  are now trading above the 50 day sma(simple moving average).  Market could just as well have a rally attempt this week and the tone of the market could just as easily change back to  "Uptrend Resumes".  Have you prepared a Stock Watch List?


Performance  of  My  15  Stocks


In my post 2 weeks ago (June 17th blog post), I had listed 15 stocks that I was monitoring.  13 of those stocks are up and 2 are down since the last  'Follow Thru'  on May 10th, 32 sessions ago (7.5 weeks).  For comparison purposes, I am also posting the performance of the 3 indexes that I monitor for the same time period:

Indexes:
  1. $DJI     ... - 1.10%
  2. $SPY    ... + 0.66%
  3. $QQQ   ... + 2.25% (Leading Index)

15 Stocks:
  1. $AAXN   ... + 15.67%
  2. $ABMD   ... + 14.21%
  3. $BCOR   ... + 18.97%
  4. $CRC      ... + 44.67%
  5. $FIVE     ...  + 37.50%
  6. $INGN    ...  + 2.59%
  7. $SHAK    ... + 13.52%
  8. $SIVB      ... - 8.94%
  9. $TCMD    ... + 15.92%
  10. $THC       ... - 3.48%
  11. $TTD        ... + 82.06%
  12. $TTGT     ... + 29.91%
  13. $TWLO    ... + 6.89%
  14. $WWE     ... + 70.98%
  15. $ZTO      ...  + 19.05%
Average performance (13 winners n 2 losers) was   + 23.97%  since the  'Follow Thru'  day 3.5 weeks ago.  Average performance per week is  + 3.20%. (+166.40% annualized).  My stocks outperformed the leading index  $QQQ  by 10.65 times.



Mentoring  Program


Our schedule for mentoring new students is full for July and August.  I am however opening up a few slots on a first come first serve basis.  Summer time is the time to learn and sharpen your skills.  Traditionally October through January are the best performing months in the market.  Secure your spot now before those slots fill up.

Would you like to learn:

  • How to select the winning stocks like  $ABMD  that have gained + 118% year to date?
  • How to Time the market with    'Follow Thru'  Days?
  • How to scale into the stocks as the stock continues to profit?
  • How to scale out of the stocks during market correction ?

Schedule a  FREE  30 minutes of  'Discovery Call'  with us and let us help you profit in the market.  Don't continue to lose money in the market and fail to out perform the market.  Let us show you how to look for Growth Stocks and how best to profit from it.


Happy Trading!



Amin




   


DISCLAIMER



Do not take a position unless you are prepared to sustain a TOTAL LOSS. Your loss could include the money you invested as well as commissions and transaction charges.


The Information I provide is for education and informational purposes only. The Information provided is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. The Information provided is general in nature and is not specific to you or anyone else.


YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, BASED ON ANY OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED WITHOUT UNDERTAKING INDEPENDENT DUE DILIGENCE AND CONSULTATION WITH A LICENSED PROFESSIONAL. You understand that you are using this Information AT YOUR OWN RISK.