Sunday, September 25, 2016

Market in Confirmed Uptrend


What a difference a week makes?   For the past several weeks,  $SPY  and  $QQQ  have been trading sideways.   Bulls and Bears have been playing   "Tug O War"  only to have bulls  GORED  two Fridays ago on Sept 9th.   Janet Yellen did her   YELLING  latter part of the week and spooked the bears into hiding.   $QQQ  continued to march on past the resistance of  $118.12  in volume 40% higher than average daily volume and surged above the  8 day ema (exponential moving average)   In the last 10 sessions,  $QQQ  has continued to lead and has surged  +3.54%   $SPY  on the other hand is stuck below the  50 day sma (simple moving average)  


My Market Outlook 


For the past several weeks, most of the stocks on  My Watch List  have been in the  Technology Sector  and most of the winners have also been in this sector.   That is understandable since  $QQQ  has been the leading index and   $XLK (Technology)   has been the leading sector.   All that changed on Monday September 19th when the market opened.   $XLF (Financial)   gapped down  -18%    Over  $Billion  changed hands for 5 days in a row last week in the sector.   You would have thought that all banks were going out of business!   Where did all that money get invested by the institutions?   Would you believe it was in the   $XLU (Utilities)?   Since there is going to be no rate increase  by the FEDS  until possibly in December,  institutions have chosen to invest their profits into dividend paying stocks.   $XLU   is up  +5.12%  in the last 2 weeks

I took the time this weekend to study the markets and do some analyses while the family was out for the day @ Disney Theme Park in Orlando.   I so desperately wanted to take part in it but than I had to remind myself that we just had a   "Follow Thru Day"   According to  Mr. William O'Neil of IBD   he suggests that one must buy something so as to dip your toes back in the market.   It has to be a Growth Stock that meets most of the  CANSLIM  criteria.    It is a critical time in the market since some good growth stocks just take off on such days and escape away from you from entering into a position at the right time for substantial gains.   This is one reason why every trader and investor has to stay engaged with the market even during times when the market is trending sideways.


IBD (Investor's Business Daily) Winning ETF Strategy


I am an accomplished and award winning educator and my experience as a teacher, mentor and a coach has taught me that some of the best students always prepare their  Stock Watch List  every week - regardless of the market condition.   They also do  Virtual Trades  to keep their trading skills sharp.   For the past several weeks, market has been trending sideways and most traders have lost patience.   Disciplined and patient traders in the mean time lay in the wait for the right stock to come into their view finder.   It is like a cheetah waiting patiently in the tall Savannah grass for the impala deer to come by within their striking distance for a successful hunt.

One very successful strategy to adapt is to buy   $QQQ  on a follow thru day when the market is in a   Confirmed Uptrend    Reduce your exposure to 50% of your position when the market condition changes to   Market under Pressure   CASH out your entire position when the market conditions deteriorate to   Market in Correction   This strategy has out performed  $SPY  since 2005.  This strategy produced an estimated cumulative return from   October 20th 2005 to June 30th 2016  of  +96%    while  $SPY  did only  +78%  over the same period


Mentoring Services

If you would like to learn our process of identifying winning growth stocks, sign up for our mentoring services.  We are planning on offering a one time special webinar for 60 - 90 minutes session on:

"How I scan for Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"


We have a very limited class size for this webinar.  If you are interested in attending this webinar, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com


Happy Trading!

Amin



Sunday, September 18, 2016

Bulls Were  GORED  but Survived


In my post last week, I alerted my readers to the possibility of the market turning lower during the week.   Friday Sept 19th was brutal with all the 9 major sectors slicing below the  50 dma  (day moving average)   $XLK (Technology Sector)  was the only sector that was spared and it just kissed the  50 dma   and bounced off it the next day in heavy volume.   This was the only sector that was heavily supported by the institutions.   It bounced up  +2.24%  for the week while the   $SPY   got stunned and stayed around  213.38  mark for the whole week.   $QQQ  on the other hand, bounced back up   +2.63%   from the 50 dma  in volume more than 50% above average daily volume.   The strength of the market is derived from the technology names.   Most of the Stocks on my Watch List in September have been in the Technology Sector


Results of Stocks on My Watch List Last Two Weeks


There were 12 stocks listed in my post in the last two weeks.  I thought my readers would like to know how they have performed during the  carnage  in the market in the month of September.   7  stocks had a cumulative gain of  +17.24%  and 5 stocks had a cumulative loss of  -15.93%  for a total gain of  +1.28%   That was an impressive performance during one of the worst months of the year.   $SPY   results was  -2.29%  while the leading index  $QQQ  did just  +0.15%  in the same time period.   Following are the results for each of those 12 stocks:

Winners

  1. $NVDA   +0.50%
  2. $GRUB   (stayed within a penny)
  3. $BABA   +5.43%
  4. $FB       +2.02%
  5. $IP        +0.14%
  6. $ATVI    +5.03%
  7. $AMAT  +4.12%

Losses

  1. $ACIA   -0.28%
  2. $EBAY  -0.38%
  3. $PE      -1.96%
  4. $CLR    -9.0%
  5. $PBR    -4.31%

Mentoring Services


If you would like to learn our process of identifying winning growth stocks, sign up for our mentoring services.  We are planning on offering a very  Special Webinar  for  60 - 90 minutes session on

"How I scan for Growth Stocks and How I create a Trade Plan"


We will have a limited size class for this webinar.   If you are interested in attending this webinar, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com


Happy Trading!

Amin



Sunday, September 11, 2016

Bears Clawed the Bulls


In my post last Monday, I had a bullish bias but I also alerted my readers to the possibility of a   Counter Trend   in a heathy bullish market.  Senior fund managers came back from their 3 day Labour Day weekend and began to realign their portfolios.  They harvested their profits from the three sectors  -  $XLP (Consumer Staples),  $XLP (Consumer Discretionary) and  $XLU (Utilities)   They invested their profits in the  $XLE (Energy) and  $XLF (Financial) sectors.   Every sector had a major distribution day on Friday.   $SPY  and  $DJX  sliced through below the 50 dma (day moving average)   $QQQ  fared a little better and just kissed the 50 dma  because the institutions supported some of the tech sector names.   $QQQ  had been the leading index since the low of June 27th and had surged  +15% by August 5th  as compared to  $SPY  which had surged just +9%  in the same time period.


My Market Outlook


Friday Sept 9th, We had a major  distribution day  and lot of traders suffered major losses in their positions.   I heard from a lot of my readers who were shocked and didn't quite know what to do with their positions.  My students that I mentor, were already out of their losing positions because they had planned their trades precisely to cut their losses short.   They were prepared for an eventuality such as the one we faced on Friday.   How did they know that we would have a major distribution day on Friday?  We did not know that this would happen on Friday but we were all fully aware of the fact that September is one of our worst months in the market.  Any trades that we executed were done with a very small position.  

What is in store for us Monday morning?   I did some analyses of the  $SPY  index.  On August 21st,  2015  (Friday)  and June 24, 2016  (Friday), market was clawed by the bears and the following Monday, market got clobbered again in high volume.   $SPY  sliced through the  200 dma  in heavy volume.   Could the same thing happen again on Monday?   I don't have an answer to that but one should be prepared for such an eventuality and trade accordingly.  It would be unwise to take on a bullish position knowing what happened previously after the market corrected on Friday and what followed on Monday.   Just recently after the market corrected for 4 days from June 24th through June 27th, we had a rally for 3 days.   We had a follow thru day on July 1st and every one was in holiday spirits for July 4th.   This was the time to be in the market just when everyone had given up.   $SPY  rallied +9%  within 4 weeks while  $QQQ  rallied close to +15%


Stocks on My Watch List


Lot of stocks got clobbered this week but quite a few managed to stay above the  20 dma  while the major indexes had sliced through the  50 dma  These are the stocks that institutions are supporting.   Once the market resumes its uptrend,  these are some of the stocks that I shall be monitoring.

  1. $EBAY
  2. $IP
  3. $PE
  4. $CLR
  5. $PBR
  6. $FB
  7. $ATVI
  8. $BABA
  9. $ACIA
  10. $AMAT

Mentoring Service

I have had a very special request from my followers on Tweeter and Linkdin regarding a webinar for 60 - 90 minute session.  They have been asking me to give a session on:

How I Scan for Growth Stocks How I create a Trade Plan

If you are interested in attending this webinar, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com 

We will have a limited size class for this webinar.


Happy Trading!

Amin



Monday, September 5, 2016

Bulls Have The Edge


We are heading into the worst month of the year in the market.   Labour Day weekend is over and this is when all the senior fund managers and traders come back to their trading desks after relaxing and barbecuing with the family.   They realign their portfolios, harvesting profits from winning positions and deploying them into trending stocks.   Earnings is out of the way since more than 90% of S&P 500 companies have already reported their earnings.   What sectors and what specific stocks will they be deploying their harvested profits into this month?   I took the time over this long weekend to scrutinize over 100 stock charts, the 3 major indexes  - $DJX, $QQQ, $SPY -  that I monitor and read some of the commentaries from my trust worthy sources.   The trend is bullish.   We had a mediocre jobs report for August released on Friday and the market moved up.   Market sent the signal that they don't anticipate a rate increase in Sept.   

I am not a  "Day Trader"  and as such my bullish outlook is for the long term.   In any  Bullish Trend   it is quite normal to also experience a  Counter Trend   For the last 8 weeks,  $SPY   has been trading very tightly within 1%  but  $QQQ   has been trading in such a manner for only 4 weeks.  I am a   Growth Stock  investor and this is a very telling sign for me.    While  $SPY   made a gain of 10% by mid July from June 27th lows,  $QQQ   exhibited strength and continued to outperform the market for a 15% gain, for 3 more weeks past mid July.   Currently,  $XLK (Technology)  is outperforming all other sectors, pretty much in lock step and barrel fashion with the   $QQQ   That is where I am focusing my attention for profitable trades this week.  


Stocks on My Watch List


There are a lot of stocks that have been consolidating for the past several weeks and setting up a flat or three weeks tight bases.   Some of these are good candidates for adding onto your current position or for making initial buys.    
  
  1. $NVDA
  2. $GRUB
  3. $BABA
  4. $ACIA
  5. $FB

Virtual Trades


In my mentoring program, my students are always asked to practice skills of trading by doing  Virtual Trades   This is a  Risk Free  way to learn to trade.   In my previous career in the airline industry,  all the pilots practiced flight operations in a   Flight Simulator   This is how they perfected their skills at flying.   Trading is very similar in that fashion too and all successful and profitable traders do this consistently.   After a while, it just becomes a habit.  Market constantly changes and the only way to keep up with it is to consistently build a  Stock Watch List  and practice virtual trades on them. 


Mentoring Service


September is an ideal month to learn and refine your trading skills.  We are filling our sessions for this month and just a few slots are left.   If you would like to schedule a FREE 30 minutes of   "Discovery Call"   to explore our mentoring services, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

Stop losing money trading and learn our disciplined method of building an actionable stock watch list.   Learn how to create a Trade Plan and how to mange your trades for Profit and mitigate Losses for trades that go against you.



Happy Trading!

Amin



 




DISCLAIMER



Do not take a position unless you are prepared to sustain a TOTAL LOSS. Your loss could include the money you invested as well as commissions and transaction charges.


The Information I provide is for education and informational purposes only. The Information provided is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. The Information provided is general in nature and is not specific to you or anyone else.


YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, BASED ON ANY OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED WITHOUT UNDERTAKING INDEPENDENT DUE DILIGENCE AND CONSULTATION WITH A LICENSED PROFESSIONAL. You understand that you are using this Information AT YOUR OWN RISK.