Managing My Portfolio

I always remind myself that Institutions - hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds etc - are the ones that account for over 75% of the total daily volume in the market.   They determine what the price of any given stock would be on any given day just because of their sheer size of daily trading volume.   It takes them several weeks to accumulate the full position in any stock that they favour.   When they decide to bail out on stocks during earnings and start harvesting profits, stocks will gap down in high volume.   In the last 2 weeks we observed   $EBAY  dropped  (-10%)  and  $AMZN   dropped  (-5%)  during earnings.   Because of the sheer trading volume of these two stocks during earnings, over $1 billion changed hands that day with  $EBAY  and over  $10 Billion  with  $AMZN   This amount of trading volume will drag down all the major indexes as well as stocks that you have in your portfolio.   As a retail trader and investor, I am always fully aware of the earnings calendar since that affects my portfolio.

I was  'Cautiously Bullish'  in my tone with my Oct 9th blog post.   I started raising my trailing stops on my positions to protect my profits.   On Oct 16th blog post, we were in the second week of earnings and my tone changed to   'Bearish'   I began liquidating my losing positions and stayed with technology names only.   That was the only leading sector at that time.   Last week I mentioned that I was mostly in   CASH   This week we have a lot of energy names and 2 tech giants  -  $FB   and  $BABA   reporting earnings.   How the institutions will respond is any one's guess!   I know that  November thru January  are some of the best months of the year for profitable trades.   I would much rather be in    CASH   as a position now to avoid erosion of my capital.   Most of all, I prefer to have monies available to take some bullish positions, once the major indexes trend above the   8 day ema (exponential moving average)

Stock on My Watch List

Currently all the 9 major sectors are trading below the  200 day sma (simple moving average)   That does not bode well for me as a retail trader.   We also have an elevated risk in the market with  14 distribution days   between   $SPY   and   $NASDAQ    Last week we had only 10.   I am constantly scanning for growth and trending stocks that have an RS ratings above 90 and trading above the   8 day ema  in a strongly defined channel.   Following is a list of stocks that I am currently monitoring:

1. $AKAM
2. $FFIV
3. $NFLX
4. $NOC
5. $BHI
6. $BAC
7. $GS
8. $MS
9. $MA
10. $PBR

I am also monitoring 2 etf's -  $EWZ  and  $DXJ   for an Option position.

Mentoring Services

We are offering a 90 minutes  WEBINAR   on:

"How I Scan For Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"

You will walk away from the session with a   "Stock Watch List"  and a   "Trade Plan"

Learn to be a successful and a profitable trader/investor from one of the seasoned trader/investor and most dynamic speaker and an award winning educator.

If you would like to reserve a spot for yourself, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

Be sure to check my tweets  @spotlightamin  during the week to keep yourself informed and up to speed with ever changing markets.

Happy Trading!

Amin

Being in CASH is a Position Too

I just got back from a dinner party at my friends house and some of them were discussing the merger between  $T   and   $TWX.   They wanted to know if this would be of a benefit to $T - the acquiring company.   I am a growth stock investor and I focus my energies into looking for only those stocks that are highly accumulated by the institutions.   I also look for stocks that are trading above the    21 day ema (exponential moving average)    Currently   $T   is trading below the   200 day sma (simple moving average)   It sliced through the   200 sma   on August 16th and has been trending below it precipitously for the last 8 weeks.   This is the stock that has not been on my radar in spite of all the noise from the media about the merger.   I am mostly in  CASH   at present.   I know from history, October is a very volatile month.   It is better to hold onto   CASH   as a position right now.   Market is still under pressure with   10 distribution days  -  according to  IBD  (investors Business Daily)   There is an elevated risk under present market conditions in taking stock positions right now.   I consider   CASH    as a position too.

My Market Outlook

This week we are right in the midst of earnings season.   Lot of energy names, airlines and giant tech stocks such as $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $BIDU as well as dividend paying defense stocks such as $RTN, GD, $LMT and $UTX will be reporting earnings.   They will move the market just because of their sheer size.   $SPY   and   $DJX   have been trending below the   50 day sma   for the last 8 weeks.   $QQQ    is the only index that is hovering above the   21 day ema    This is the only area where I have been focusing my energies for the past several weeks.   $XLK (technology)   is  even  and   $XLE (energy)   is up by   +2%   since the follow thru day 4 weeks ago.   It appears that we have a sector rotation going on right now.   4 of the 9 sectors -  $XLU (Utilities),  $XLV (Health Care),  $XLP (Consumer Staples)  and  $XLF (Financials)  are trading below the 200 day sma.   It appears that institutions are investing their harvested profits in the depressed energy names.   I had mentioned to my  IBD Meetup group on September 13th that energy sector is where there might be growth stocks popping up in the next growth cycle. 

Stocks on My Watch List

1. $EMES
2. $SLCA
3. $PBR
4. $CLR
5. $FANG
6. $PXD
7. $APA
8. $PE
9. $REN
10. $CPE

Some of these stocks are extended and may provide a good short term bullish Credit Put Spread Option Trades.   I would caution my readers however that we have a lot of stocks reporting earnings this week and the market could either tumble over or punch through the resistance.   It is all up to what the institutions decide to do.   They account for over 75% of the total trading volume daily.   This is the main reason why I have chosen to be in CASH mostly at this time.   I shall lay in wait - just like a leapord in the trees - for the right opportunity to come within my striking zone for a profitable kill.   I have already done my home work over the weekend and created a trade plan for any likely scenario in the market this week.   I hope my readers have done the same.


Happy Trading!

Amin

Bears are Prowling

We are heading into the 3rd week of October and it could be a gut wrenching week.   It is one of the busiest weeks with earnings being reported by the banks, airlines, rail roads and some tech names like  $AMZN  and  $EBAY.    Market could either surge ahead or come crashing down like it did last week.   Last Monday October 10th, the leading index   $QQQ   was hovering above the    8 day ema (exponential moving average)   only to come crashing down to   34 day ema   by the end of the session.   Bears were definately in charge and none of the 9 major sectors were spared.   Currently only   $XLK (Technology)   and   $XLE (Energy)    are the leading sectors.   This is where the retail investor ought to be looking for opportunities in the market.

Market Outlook

My outlook of the market is very dim heading into the third week of October.   7 of the 9 major sectors are already trading below the   50 dma (day simple moving average)    4 of the 7 sectors   ($XLV (Health Care), $XLF (Financial), $XLU (Utilities) and $XLP (Consumer Staples)   are already heading into the bear territory, trading below or touching the   200 dma    How the institutions react to the earnings report this week will determine the direction of the market.   Using history as a guide,  I have to remind myself that major market crashes have occurred during the month of October.   It is also the month when in the year 2014,  $QQQ   surged over   +11%   from October 16th through Dec 5th   This requires for me to be totally prepared for either of those scenarios.   I would suggest to my followers to raise their trailing stops to protect profits in their positions but also to have a ready   "Watch List of Stocks"    to execute a trade, should the market take off like it did in 2014 and 2015 October

Mentoring Services 

We are planning on offering a  ONE TIME  special webinar for 90 minutes session on:

"How I Scan For Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"

It will be a very limited class size for this webinar.  If you would like to reserve a spot, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

We will post the details of the date and time as soon as we fill the class.   There are just a few spots left so don't procrastinate.   You will walk away from the session with a    "Stock Watch List"    and a   "Trade Plan"

Learn to be a successful and a profitable trader/investor from one of the seasoned trader/investor and most dynamic speaker and an award winning educator.   

Be sure to check my tweets   @ spotlightamin   Monday morning before market opens for some of the stocks that are on   "My Watch List"

Happy Trading!

Amin

Be Cautiously Bullish

We are heading into the most bullish period in the stock market.   Historically the market has returned on an average   +14.6%   from November thru April looking at the data from the last 50 years.   October traditionally has been a very volatile month with major market corrections occurring during the month.   We have also had   follow thru   days during this month where the market took off with gains of    +11% to +12.23%    within  5 to 12 weeks.   You want to be prepared and engaged with the market to take advantage of such an opportunity.   Lot of my followers and readers missed out on such an opportunity in:

1. 2013 from Oct 8th thru Dec 31 for  + 11%   gain
2. 2014 from Oct 16th thru Dec 5th for  +11%   gain
3. 2015 from Sept 28th thru Nov 3rd for  +12.23%  gain

May thru September is when everyone should have been sharpening their trading skills.   I had posted a blog on August 28th  (They are archived and you can access them)  on the subject of   Virtual Trades   Hopefully my followers have been following my lead and have learnt to prepare realistic   Trade Plans   for Loss, Profit and Time exits.   

Market Outlook

Market is currently digesting the gains from the July 1st   Follow Thru Day   We do have an elevated   distribution   days count of 4 on the   $NASDAQ   and 7 on   $SPY    We are also heading into the 3rd quarter earnings season with   $AA   entering the confessional booth on Tuesday followed by the big banks on Friday.   This will be a very volatile week since the entire  $XLF (Financial)   sector is under severe stress.   The sector dropped  -18%   on Sept 16th and has stayed below the  200 day sma    $XLK (Technology)   is still leading the pack and that is where one should be looking for opportunities.   

Results of My Virtual Trades for Last Two Weeks

I was off for a mini vacation to Disney with the family last week but I tweeted to my followers that I shall be posting the results on the 19 stocks that I did a    Virtual Trade   on two weeks ago.   My   Trade Plan   was for   +10%   profit target,   -4%   for loss target and to be out of the position prior to earnings report as a time target.   I had  9  positions for a total loss of  -22.06%  (Ouch! Ouch! Ouch!)   I also had  10  positions for a total gain of  +30.64%    (yeah!)   All 19 positions combined, I attained a profit of   +8.58%   in just 2 wks

Here are the results for each individual positions:

1. $GRUB  -0.47%
2. $GIMO  -3.34%
3. $PAYC  -1.57%
4. $VEEV  -4.0%
5. $ATVI   -0.14%
6. $STOR  -4.0%
7. $JACK  -4.0%
8. $BGS   -2.88%
9. $PKG   -1.66%
10. $UBNT   +1.20%
11. $PRAH   +3.21%
12. $LITE     +7.96%
13. $AMZN   +5.04%
14. $MELI    +1.59%
15. $ANET   + 0.06%
16. $BABA   +0.10%
17. $HQY     +3.01%
18. $APC     +8.40%
19. $WMB    + 0.07%

Mentoring Services

If you would like to learn our process of identifying winning growth stocks, sign up for our mentoring services.   we are planning on offering a   ONE TIME  special webinar for 90 minutes session on:

"How I scan for Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"

It will be a very limited class size for this webinar.   If you would like to reserve a spot, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

Happy Trading!

Amin