Sunday, April 30, 2017

Timing The Market

Last week on Wednesday April 26th, I wrote a post on the subject of    "Timing the Market"    It stirred a lot of discussion from my readers on tweeter and Linkdin.   Market had been consolidating since mid March in a very tight and orderly fashion.   Quite a few stocks were building tight bases just like a tightly wound spring.   All it needed was a catalyst to propel it further up or down.   We had over 70 companies slated to report earnings last week and the market took off Monday.   Market got into a  "Confirmed Uptrend    at the end of Monday session and that was my sign as a Growth Stock investor to enter the market.   That is how I time the market for bullish position.   I had my upper limit target set on Sunday night for the 3 indexex that I follow:

  1. $QQQ ..... 135 
  2. $SPY  ....  238
  3. $DJX  ....  209    
All the targets were met the by end of Monday session.   Market began to consolidate the gains for the next 4 days.   One exception however was the  $QQQ.   It kept up the momentum and rose  +4.29%   cumulative within the last 2 weeks.   That is where the strength of the market came from.

My Market Outlook 

Currently the market is still in an uptrend and I have a very bullish bias with just 7  distribution days   on the books.   Once again we have over 70 companies reporting earnings this week - including the   $AAPL   and   $FB.   These 2 stocks account for over  +11%   of the  $NASDAQ  index.   They are both at their all time highs and trending along a the   8 day ema(exponential moving average)   I have adjusted upwards, my bullish target for the 3 indexex as follows:
  1. $QQQ ... 138
  2. $SPY  ...  241
  3. $DJI   ...  211.50
Stocks that are worthy of monitoring this week are

  1. $MCD
  2. $WYN
  3. $CCL
  4. $BSX
  5. $AMZN
  6. $TMUS

Update on My Stock List of Last 3 Weeks

Here is the performance of the stocks that I had identified as winning stocks in my last 3 weekly blog post.   Some of you who are fortunate enough to be in my IBD Meetup group in the local Tampa bay area and some of my student mentees on line are  very familiar with these stocks.   I have shared my sentiments and my stock chart analyses as to why I consider them to be the stocks worthy enough to be on my Watch List.   I have highlighted the performance of these stocks as of last Friday April 28th.

  1. $ADBE  (+2.70%)
  2. $AEIS    (+10.63%)
  3. $AMAT  (+4.32%)
  4. $APO    (+5.81%
  5. $ATVI    (+5.32%)
  6. $CGNX  (+1.33%)
  7. $CIM      (+0.84%)
  8. $CHTR   (+4.39%)
  9. $CRUS  (-0.43%)
  10. $DIS      (+2.68%)
  11. $GMS    (+3.93%)
  12. $GTN     (+1.74%)
  13. $HDB     (+4.09%)
  14. $IBP       (+3.69%)
  15. $IDXX    (+7.88%)
  16. $LRCX   (+12.03%)
  17. $MKSI    (+14.57%)
  18. $MOMO  (+8.73%)
  19. $PCLN    (+4.37%)
  20. $RAI       (+1.50%)
  21. $SNPS    (+3.13%)
  22. $SWKS   (-2.04%)
  23. $ULTA     (-1.08)

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Amin

Wednesday, April 26, 2017


Can You Time The Market ?

Absolutely!
I am not a    "Buy and Hold"    investor.  I am a Growth Stock investor.  In my blog I was cautioning my followers 3 weeks ago to have a trailing stop on stocks that had a   +5%   profit.  Market had over 10   distribution days   and that was the time to start accumulating   CASH   by harvesting profits and staying on the sidelines.   I had prepared my readers that new leaders will emerge and they most certainly did Monday morning April 24th.   Market went into a   "Confirmed Uptrend".    That is a sign that the market health has improved.   It is also a sign to enter into the market with your ready Stock Watch List.   That is how I   Time the market.
Here is a list of stocks that I had identified as winning stocks in my last 3 weekly blog posts.   They were poised to be the leaders when the market conditions improve.   These were the stocks that had   RS   ratings above   90   and they were trading along the    8 day ema (exponential moving average)   while the general market was consolidating and trading sideways.   This is a sign of institutional support for the stocks and those are the ones that retail traders ought to focus on.   I have highlighted the performance of these stocks as of 1.30 pm on Wednesday April 19th (half way thru the week)
  1. $ADBE (+1.09%)
  2. $AEIS (+5.49%)
  3. $AMAT (+2.49%)
  4. $APO (+6.20%)
  5. $ATVI (+2.55%)
  6. $CGNX (+2.50)
  7. $CIM (+0.88%)
  8. $CHTR (+2.29%)
  9. $CRUS (+2.24%)
  10. $DIS (+1.24%)
  11. $GMS (+3.37%)
  12. $GTN (+3.82%)
  13. $HDB (+4.85%)
  14. $IBP (+1.12%)
  15. $IDXX (+2.26%)
  16. $LRCX (+3.82%)
  17. $MKSI (+5.27%)
  18. $MOMO (-3.47%)
  19. $PCLN (+2.41%)
  20. $RAI (+1.30%)
  21. $SNPS (+0.89%)
  22. $SWKS (+1.11%)
  23. $ULTA (+0.40%)
There was only one losing position   ($MOMO)   in the last 2 and 1/2 sessions but that stock is still trading above the 8 day ema and still a leader in the market. I will review all these positions during my stock research that I do every weekend and update you in my blog post on Sunday night. 
Happy Trading!

Amin

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Buy High ... Sell Higher 

My friends and relatives know that I have been trading and investing in stocks for the last 25 years.  Every once in a while, they will ask me as to what is a good cheap stock to buy.  My answer always is that I don't ever look at cheap stocks.  They are cheap because there is no demand for these stocks.  I will tell them that I prefer to buy stocks that are in demand and the price is appreciating.  This seems counter intuitive to them because they believe that one should buy low and sell high.  I just keep reminding them that  $PCLN  was a  $1,000  stock in October 2013 and now it is trading at  $1750.  That is  +75%  gain in  3.5 years.  The stock has been going higher by  +4%  to  +6.5%  during the last 3 earnings report.  They report 1st quarter earnings in first week of May.  It will be interesting to see what the stock does at that time.  Currently it is consolidating along the   8 day ema (exponential moving average)  It is one of the stocks I am monitoring this week.


Where are We Headed

This is a very busy week with over 70 major companies slotted to enter the earnings confessional booth.  We have giant Technology companies like  $GOOGL, $AMZN and $MSFT reporting on Thursday April 27th.  They account for  +20%  of the $NASDAQ index.  They will be the catalyst to jolt the market from its sideways consolidation of the last 6 weeks.  Lot of growth stocks are trading along an 8 day ema in a very orderly tight base of 3, 4, 5 or 6 weeks.  They are like a loaded spring and are looking for the earnings catalyst to either allow the bulls to take control of the market or just let the bears just take it down.  My lower and higher targets for the 3 major indexex are:

  1. $QQQ ..... 130 - 135
  2. $SPY  ....  230 - 238
  3. $DJX  ....  202 - 209
We could start seeing increased trading volume coming in on Tuesday with  $CAT, $MCD, $LMT and $BHI  slotted to report earnings.  April is the best month in the market and it is usually the second half of the month that propels the market higher traditionally.  This is because a lot of companies are slotted to release their earnings report during the second half of the month.

Stocks I Will Monitor This Week

The only stocks that I currently monitor are the ones that are trending along the  8 day ema and have an RS ratings of over 90.  These are the stocks that have the potential to break out if the institutions look favourably to the earnings release this week.

  1. $MKSI
  2. $SWKS
  3. $APO
  4. $CIM
  5. $CHTR
  6. $IBP
  7. $GTN
  8. $MOMO
  9. $SNPS
  10. $GMS
Once again, some of these stocks are good candidates for a low risk conservative short term Option Trades.

Mentoring Service

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Amin

Sunday, April 16, 2017

My Market Outlook 


We had a short trading week last week with the market closed on Good Friday.   Market took an ugly turn last week and all the 3 major indexes  -  $DJI,  $SPY  and  $QQQ   headed below the 50 day sma (simple moving average)   Market had been consolidating for several weeks to digest the gains made since Nov 8th.    Financial Sector was the one that had made the most gains since the   "Follow Thru   day."   Market needed a catalyst to propel it higher and earnings reports is a huge catalyst.   Some of the banks had earnings release on Thursday and the institutions responded by harvesting their profits.   All this harvested profits were deployed in the  $XLU (Utilities Sector)   This is a defensive move by the institutions and we as retail traders ought to be raising  CASH  right now.   We will have new leading stocks coming into the horizon after the market corrects and you want to be ready to step back in the market with cash in your account.


Where are the New Leading Stocks Emerging From


I know that is what my followers are thinking right now.   There has been a sector rotation going on for the past couple of weeks.   Stocks in the Financial Sector were showing signs of topping out 3 weeks ago.   Institutions were harvesting their profits from the Technology and Financial Sectors.   It was happening for several weeks.   We were getting  "Distribution Days"   during that time and now the market has an elevated count of distribution days.   One or two more days like the ones we had last Thursday could change the condition of the market  to   "Market in Correction"   This is the reason for using  "Trailing Stops"   to protect profits in stocks that have 5% profits or more.   You never want to give up a heathy profit in a trade when the market conditions change suddenly like the one we experienced last week.

One of the things I focus on when the market has an elevated distribution days count is to look for stocks that continue to trend along the   8 day ema (exponential moving average)   while the general market is trending lower.   These are the stocks that would exhibit high RS ratings of 90 and above and with some of them the RS line would be turning upwards too.   These are the ones that are showing signs of support from the institutions and they would be the ones that would emerge as the new leaders when the market conditions change to a healthy status.   This could happen anytime next week too.   We have lot of stocks in the financial, transports and the the dow 30 reporting earnings this week.   Increased sales and increased earnings is what drives the price of Growth Stocks.   

Stocks I will monitor This Week


Here is a list of stocks that are trending along the    8 day ema   Some of these stocks are already extended and have a profit cushion of  +5%   or more.   These are the ones that also show RS ratings above 90 and RS line turning up as well. 

  1. $WDC
  2. $CIM 
  3. $WYN
  4. $HDB
  5. $RAI  
  6. $DIS
  7. $VRTX
  8. $ADBE
Some of these stocks are also good candidates for a low risk conservative short term Option Trades.

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Happy Trading!

Amin





Sunday, April 2, 2017

Results of Stocks on My Watch List


Tuesday March 21st we suffered a  "Distribution Day".   All 3 major indexes that I monitor  - $DJI, $QQQ and $SPY -  had sliced down past the   30 day sma (simple moving average)  and were heading towards the   50 day sma.   The condition of the market had changed to  "Market Under Pressure".   This is a cautionary signal to retail traders to hold off taking any position in a stock and initiate trailing stops to lock in the profits.  This is also the time to scrutinize Growth Stocks and identify the ones that may become the next leaders when the market status improves and goes back to  "Confirmed Uptrend".    Seasoned traders however continue to stay engaged with the market and not get despondent.  I published a list of stocks on Tuesday March 28 that were holding up while the market was correcting.  They were all trading along the   8 day ema (exponential moving average)   while the 3 indexes were already below the  30 day sma.   The following stocks were showing strength because the institutions were supporting it and holding onto it while the general market was breaking down.  

  1. $AMAT ...  -0.18%
  2. $VMW  ... +0.45%
  3. $IDXX  ...  +0.57%
  4. $LRCX  ... +0.70%
  5. $CRUS  ...+1.04%
  6. $ULTA  ...  +1.31%
  7. $ATVI  ...   +1.50%
  8. $PCLN  ...  +1.53%
  9. $MOMO ... +2.22%
  10. $AEIS  ...   +3.18%
  11. $VEEV ...   +3.45%
  12. $CGNX ...  +4.41%
Some of these stocks are extended and have surpassed their ideal buy point.  $AMAT  has already made  +25%  from its ideal buy point of  $31.75   since Nov 18th.  It is however consolidating for the past 2 weeks and still trending along an established uptrend channel since the follow thru day on Nov 9th.  Average gain for these 12 stocks - including the  $AMAT  with a slight loss  - was  +1.68%   for the week.  That is  +87.36%   annualized return.

Mentoring Service

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"How I Identify Winning Stocks and How I Execute and Monitor Trades with Trailing Stops"


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Schedule a FREE 30 minutes  "Discovery Call"  with us and learn how best our mentoring and coaching can help you become a consistent profitable trader.


Happy Trading!

Amin

DISCLAIMER



Do not take a position unless you are prepared to sustain a TOTAL LOSS. Your loss could include the money you invested as well as commissions and transaction charges.


The Information I provide is for education and informational purposes only. The Information provided is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. The Information provided is general in nature and is not specific to you or anyone else.


YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, BASED ON ANY OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED WITHOUT UNDERTAKING INDEPENDENT DUE DILIGENCE AND CONSULTATION WITH A LICENSED PROFESSIONAL. You understand that you are using this Information AT YOUR OWN RISK.