Sunday, December 25, 2016

Merry Christmas To All My Readers And Supporters


I have enjoyed sharing my success and expertise in the market with all my followers for the past 21 months.   You have encouraged me to produce fresh and new content every week with your retweets on my tweeter account  as well as you all sharing my content on Linkedin.   I have now over 6,000 followers from all different parts of the world  that read my content and I appreciate all the comments that you all share with me.   I want to take this moment to convey my very special thanks to you and wish you all a very   Merry Christmas.    Please continue to share your comments with me to help keep our conversations and discussions on the stock market going forward.  This will help us all learn from each other and make us all better and profitable traders and investors.    

I am writing this post on Christmas Day late at night in    Santiago Chile.   Chile is 2 hours ahead of Florida Eastern Time Zone.   This has been a fun filled day for me as I look outside my Hotel window with Andes mountains in the background.   The clouds  began rolling in just before sunset (it is summer here in the southern hemisphere with sun rise at 5.30 am and sun set at 9.00 pm)   It was a beautiful sight to see with clouds rolling in and hugging the canyons that separate the mountain peaks.   There was a rainbow between the peaks of the mountains and it felt like a very special and a magical moment for me.   This has been a very special Christmas Day for me and unlike any that I have spent in the US.   It is a very difficult day for me to write this post while I am enjoying all the sights and sounds of Chile but I know that you are all depending on me to get something from me every Monday before market opens so here I am putting down a few words for you.


Update on   $RDN   Virtual Trade


In my post last week, I was stressing the point of having a routine every week to build a    Stock Watch List    and the importance of doing   Virtual Trades   to sharpen trading skills.   That is how I come up with   Super Stocks   like   $NVDA   every year.   In the last 3 weeks since my post on  5 trades on this stock, this stock has produced a gain of   +24%     It  is now trading at the upper end of the channel and will most likely retrace.   

I had identified   $RDN    as a stock of study to carry out a   Virtual Trade   with an entry at   $17.75    We had set a trade plan for a   +10%  profit target.   Currently the stock is   +2.53%   for the week.   All the 3 major indexes    $SPY,   $QQQ   and   $DJX   have been trading sideways for the past 12 to 15 sessions but   $RDN   continues to march forward.   This is a sign of institutional support.   They are deploying money into this stock while the general market is just trading sideways.   In my post last week I had highlighted how the high volume had come in on July 5th, Oct 12th, Nov 9th and finally on Nov 16th to lift the stock from    $9.88   to   $17.58   for a total gain of    +78%    This is a stock that we can all learn very special lessons from in helping us identify the characteristics of a   Super Stock   


My Market Outlook 


I have a very bullish bias toward the market overall.   We do have    10 distribution days    and the   $DJX   has already advanced    +11.44%    since Nov 4th.   It is quite normal for the market to trade sideways like it has for the past 12 sessions.   I would not be surprised if the market does retrace a little.   It takes time for the market to digest the gains.   This would be a good time to harvest profits if the stocks have attained the profit targets outlined in your trade plans.   It would be prudent to raise the trailing stops as well to protect the profits.   

I have identified some of the stocks that I shall be monitoring this week.   Be sure to look over my tweets on Monday where I will share some of those thoughts with you.   The three sectors that are showing strengths in the current market are   $XLF (Financials)   $XLE (Energy)   and  $IYT (Transportation) 



Happy Trading!

Amin


 

Sunday, December 18, 2016

How Do You Find    SUPER STOCKS   like   $NVDA


In my post last week, I had highlighted how    $12,000    of profit was made with 5 stock trades on   $NVDA   in the last 7 months.   Lot of my readers and followers had a lot of questions directed to me in the last few days as to how did I come upon such a winning stock.   I had not given this question much of a thought in the past.   Every year for the past several years, I have come across such a stock with regularity.   It is not mere luck though.   I have stayed disciplined in building    My Stock Watch List    every week and stayed engaged with the market daily weather the market was in a   "Confirmed Uptrend"   as it is currently or when the market has high number of distribution days and   "Under Pressure"   or in   "Correction"  


I am on a 2 weeks vacation right now on a cruise to South America.   One of the the books that I read in the last several days was   "How to Make Money in Stocks"   by  Mr. William J. O'Neil (founder of   Investor's Business Daily)   I read this book every so often and I always learn something new every time I read it.   There are over 300 stock charts in the book with annotations and they help explain what Mr. O'Neil is trying to convey.   One of the remarks he has made in the book struck me very hard and I will share that remark with you:

"Over the years, I've found that only one or two out of ten stocks that I've bought turned out to be truly outstanding and capable of making this kind of substantial profits.   In other words, to get the one or two stocks that make big money, you have to look for and buy ten"


One of the things that I have impressed upon my students in my mentoring services is to do   "Virtual Trades"   This is a simulation and a practice run to sharpen the skills of trading.   It helps in identifying the stock personality and how best to trade them.    I do a lot of virtual trades as well and that is how I come upon winning stocks such as   $NVDA   that makes my year.


Virtual Trade on   $RDN

If you have ever been on a cruise ship, you would know how expensive the internet service is and it is worst than a dial up wifi - to add insult to the injury.   I did however manage to do my routine of building  My Stock Watch List and analyzing the market.   I did a thorough analysis of   $RDN   to see what the institutions are doing with this stock.   This is what I found:


  1. July 5th it broke out with +300% above average daily volume at $9.88 and within 9 weeks  +42.10   profit was made at $14.04  (we had a follow thru day on July 1st)
  2. Oct 12 it broke out with +150% above average daily volume at $13.79 and within 8 sessions  +6.24%   profit was made at $14,65
  3. Nov 9th we had a volume surge of +300% above average daily volume followed by volume surge of +200% on Nov 10th (we had a follow thru day on Nov 9th)
  4. Nov 16th we had a volume surge of +400% and stock gained   +16.59%   by Dec 16th


Could this be a   Super Stock?   I follow the lead of the institutions since they are the ones that account for the price moves of a stock in the market.   They have shown a commitment to the stock with their sheer volume in the past 6 months.   The stock has already made   +78%   since July 5th.   Currently the  RS rating is  91  and the  RS line is strengthening.   The stock is extended and we have   10  Distribution days    between the    $NASDAQ   and   $SPY    This would be a good stock to do a virtual trade on to verify if this could become a super stock.


My virtual trade would be:

Entry ... $17.75
Exit for Profit @ 10% ... $19.53
Exit for Loss   @ -4% ... $17.04
Time to exit ... Prior to earnings report on Jan 26



Happy Trading!

Amin



  




Sunday, December 11, 2016

My   Super Stock   of the Year


Every year, I come across a stock that makes my year.   Sometimes I miss them initially because I didn't listen to what the institutions were telling me.   Stock charts very clearly show the price and volume for each day the market is open.   When the institutions decide to take a position in a winning stock, it takes them several weeks to establish a full position.   I always look for increased volume above the daily moving average volume that results in an increase in the price of a stock.   That is a confirmation for me that institutions are competing against each other to accumulate shares in their portfolio.   

In my post last week, I had indicated that I will share with you some of the trading strategies that I employed on   $NVDA   during the last 12 months.   This stock came on my radar initially on August 7th 2015.   Market conditions were not favorable at that time to take a position but   $NVDA   surged   +15%   in volume that was   +700%   above average daily volume.   This is not a thin stock and it trades    +$200 million    daily (price of stock  X  shares traded per day)   This is a massive volume for the stock leading to an increase in the share price of the stock during unfavorable market conditions.   I was disciplined and stayed patient for an opportune time to enter into a position.   I continued to build    My Stock Watch List   every weekend and stayed engaged with the market even though the market was trending sideways during the summer months.   


Stock Trading History


My patience finally paid off within 2 months and an opportune time presented itself on October 2nd 2015.   Market was in    "Correction"   in September but than it rallied at the end of the month and we had a    "Follow Thru"   day on October 2nd.    Market status changed to    "Confirmed Uptrend"   I am a disciple of  Mr. William J. O'Neil - founder of Investor's Business Daily.   According to him,   "You should always buy something on a follow thru day"    Everything had just lined up for me to step in and take a position on    $NVDA


For illustrative purposes, I will use 400 shares of stock as an initial position ($10,000).   Total of  5 trades were established from October 2nd 2015 to October 24th 2016.   Profits were harvested within 3 to 7 weeks upon entering into these 5 trades.   Following is the summary:
  1. Oct 2 2015 ... entry  $25   exit  $28.50  (+14% in 4 weeks)
  2. Mar 21 2016 ... entry  $33.81  exit  $36.50  (+7.95% in 3 weeks)
  3. May 13 2016 ... entry  $40.09  exit  $45.66  (+13.9% in 3 weeks)
  4. July 5 2016  ... entry  $46.60  exit  $58.60  (+25.75% in 5 weeks)
  5. Sept 2 2016 ... entry  $$64.24  exit  $70.66  (+10% in 7 weeks)
Total accumulated profits from these 5 trades amounted to   +$12,072    This stock was never held through earnings.   We are in the 8th year of the bull market and earnings report can devastate the stock if the institutions don't like what they see in the earnings report.   I find it best to harvest profits before the earnings report is due.    

In my post next week, I will highlight some of the    Option Trades    that were initiated to take advantage of the stock trading along the    8 day ema (exponential moving average)   or the stock consolidating for several weeks while the market overall was consolidating.   The stock had a phenomenal performance of    +182.64%    from Oct 2nd 2015   to Oct 24th 2016.   Utilizing stock purchases as well as Options on stocks, we can increase our profits substantially without taking the risk of holding the stock through earnings.


Mentoring Service

If you would like to learn our system of     Identifying Growth Stocks    such as    $NVDA   and to profit from it, contact us    @ investorspotlight@gmail.com   



Happy Trading!

Amin

     

 








Sunday, December 4, 2016

Time to Look for a  "Super Stock"


Every year, I come across a stock that makes my year.   For me it was    $NVDA   this year. It didn't happen by an accident though.   It took a lot of work analysing the stock chart, anotating chart and writing a detailed trade journal for every trade that I methodically placed on the stock and options on the stock.   There are a lot of lessons learnt with every trade.   The key is to duplicate those trade set ups that have been profitable for you and to avoid doing what doesn't work for you.    It sounds like a simple idea but putting this into practice is what it is all about. 

Currently the outlook of the market per   IBD (Investors Business Daily)   is   "Uptrend Under Pressure"    We have 11 distribution days between the 2 major indexes  -  $SPY   and   $QQQ.   This is the time to be cautious.   It is also the time to protect your profits in a position.   Harvest the profits if the position has met your profit targets.   Follow your trade plan for loss exits as well and don't let your emotions dissuade you from closing out a losing posiition.   It takes as few as 3 to 5 sessions for the major indexes to slice through the    50 day sma (simple moving average)   I have illustrated several times in my post how you can still be ahead even if you lose half of the positions you take.   The key is to follow your trade plan for profit exits but also for   LOSS     exits.   That is how you manage your portfolio.


My  "Super Stock"  of the Year



During the month of December,  I shall highlight   $NVDA   as a case study for educational purposes.   This stock is  +160%   in the last 8 months.   It is reaching its peak now and there may just be very little juice left in the stock for such gains.    Stocks such as these appear on a regular basis but it takes the discipline to be totally engaged with the market on a daily basis.   Currently most of the growth stocks are extended and they are consolidating and building new bases.   This is when I do most of my work looking for that needle in the hay stack.   As a retail trader and investor, you don't have to trade every day and all different stocks in a year.    Once you identify a   "Super Stock"     such as   $NVDA,   you can trade the same stock and options on that stock all year long for substantial gains.   My posts for the next 2 weeks will highlight this strategy for you.      



My Market Outlook


I still have a bullish bias towards the market.   We can expect the market to consolidate this week, especially after having had such a good month in November.   Financial sector has been leading so far but they have come up too far already.   Lot of them have been consolidating for the past  7 to 10 sessions.   I am focusing my attention on the transportation sector  -  airlines, railroads, truckers and shippers.    I would suggest you take a look at the stock charts of   $FDX   and   $UPS.   December is one of the best months in the stock market.   This week will determine where the market will be heading and what sectors will the institutions favour.   


Be sure to look over my tweeter account @  spotlightamin    I tweet some of the stocks I am monitoring and some basic facts about their performance.   Be sure to retweet any content that you find useful to you.   This way we get a wider community of traders and investors involved in the discussions.   It will benefit all of us and we all get to learn from each other.




Happy Trading!

Amin


Sunday, November 27, 2016

Lessons Learnt From Our Webinar


Last Saturday on November 19th, we had a 90 minute Live Webinar presented to show:

How I Scan For Growth Stocks And How I Create A Trade Plan


I shared with the participants my very strict criteria for selecting the best of the best stocks.   Quite often I get questions as to why I have such strict standards and criteria for coming up with the Stock Watch List every week.   I am a retail trader and as such I look for only  "Rock Stars"    At any given time, I am looking for just 1 super stock to trade. That stock has to be the very best stock in a leading sector.   I am also looking for that stock to exhibit strong fundamentals and technicals.     

Currently the market is in a   "Confirmed Uptrend"   with 10 distribution days between the   $NASDAQ   and   $SPY.    We had identified 6 stocks on our watch list and I shared 2 trades with the group on   $NVDA   that appeared on our watch list.   Following are the results of the performance of 6 stocks during the last 4 sessions (the Market was closed for Thanksgiving and Friday was open half a day)

  1. $NVDA   +0.86%
  2. $FFIV     +1.49%
  3. $CFG     +1.53%
  4. $MSCC  + 3.39%
  5. $AMAT   + 3.71%
  6. $SCHW  + 4.03%

Update on  $NVDA  Trades


We had 2 trades constructed that I shared with the webinar attendees.   Following are the results of those trades:

1.  Stock Trade placed on November 16th

Trade Plan:  Entry $89  Profit Target  +10%  at  $97.90   Loss Exit at  -4%    at   $85.44.   Currently the trade is already  +5.80%  in the last 7 sessions.

Stock is extended and is trading at its upper channel.   Analyst upgraded the stock to  $100  after the stock surged    +30%   during earnings in volume   5 times   the average daily volume.   Stock will likely consolidate and trade sideways  before it surges in volume and price to attain our profit target.

2.  Credit Spread Option Trade placed on November 17th

Trade Plan:  Buy Dec (week 1) 88 put and Sell Dec (week 1) 90 put for a  Credit of 65 cents.   Risk in the trade is   $1.35

Stock is extended and we are just looking for the stock to trade sideways until Dec 1st.  We will manage the risk so we don't incur a loss of more than   70 cents   We just want the stock to stay above   $92  since the trade was filled at  $91.87   Currently the trade has attained   75%   of the planned credit.   Our goal is to close out the trade once   80%  of the planned credit is attained.


My Market Outlook


Currently I am very bullish on the market.   $DJX  and  $SPY  has been trending along the   8 day ema (exponential moving average)  in a very orderly fashion for the last 3 weeks.  They are trending along a very well defined channel as well.  

I have the following projections for the 3 major indexes that I monitor:

  1. $DJX ... 19,800
  2. $SPY ... 228.38
  3. $QQQ ...129.50
We have had more than  +6%  gains in the last 4 weeks for  $SPY  and  $DJX.   It is quite normal for the market to retrace and consolidate the gains before marching ahead.  This is the time to observe your loss targets on any position that you have.   If past behavior of the market is any indication to us, we know that these major indexes have plummeted to the   50 day sma (simple moving average)   within 3 to 5 sessions during a counter trend within the established bullish trend.



Happy Trading!

Amin



Sunday, November 20, 2016

Trade Plan


This weekend, we had a very special 90 minutes Webinar on:


How I Scan For Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan


Lot of my readers and followers were unable to attend the live webinar on Saturday November 19th at 2:00 pm because we had a full class.   Some of you couldn't attend because you had other commitments.   Last year I had written a post on the subject of  "Trade Plan"  and for the benefit of my readers and followers who were unable to attend the webinar, I felt that this subject should be brought back to attention.   Here is the post from last year that is still applicable for our current market environment:  



Every trader looks like a genius when the market supports all of their positions but for me, the smartest traders are those that come up with a system that eliminates their risk variables.  



All too often, traders will focus only on their profit target and overlook properly setting up a contingency plan for when things start moving in the wrong direction.  I believe any trader can benefit from a refresh on the basics so today, we're going to look at some core elements of a good exit plan.  

Work off of the  $1 loss  to  $3 profit  ratio

One of the worst mistakes you can make is to think of the profit to loss ratio only from the profit side.  Let's use our imaginary friend, Terry The Trader, to highlight an example.

Terry feels really good about taking a position on a particular stock.  All of the charts look solid and the profit target is clearly defined.  The overall market has been soaring for weeks. To top it off, recently all of Terry's moves have benefitted from the Midas touch so what's to lose?  Time to pull the trigger and start looking for the next golden goose, right?

Wrong!  

What Terry couldn't anticipate was the upcoming 60 Minutes expose about that company's CEO getting indicted!  By mid week, options are limited and Terry is left scrambling.  

Situations like this have confronted every trader out there but they're completely avoidable if you take the extra steps needed to plan out a loss threshold.  

Stop second guessing your plan

Any time you take a position, you need to place an order for a contingent stop loss right afterwards.  Don't put this off for any amount of time - act immediately before your emotions and biases can enter into the mix.  Just make this a part of your routine for every single position you take.  By the 3rd time, you will have formed a new habit!

It's also important to monitor your position after you've taken it.  In my experience, the   34 day EMA (exponential moving average)   can be an early indicator that a stock is going against your profit plan.  If you see a sudden increase in the selling side of Volume, that's a danger sign as well.  


Focus on emerging opportunities

You can spend days spinning your wheels in analysis paralysis after a position goes against you.  Unfortunately, throwing a pity party sucks up all of your energy and leads to missing the boat on new opportunities.  

When a position goes against you it's important to have your watch list on hand.  In our next series we're going to fully examine the best way to build a watch list but for now, you need to make sure that you at least:
  • Look at stocks in the same industry group as your profitable positions.
  • Avoid stocks that have surpassed their buy point.
  • For an early indicator of a stocks momentum, review the 21 day exponential moving average and the relative strength line.  

If you aren't already aware, relative strength is your best indication of a stocks value against all of the other stocks in that particular industry group.  That's a key metric that you don't want to overlook!



Keep in mind that IBD® is a tremendous resource when you're putting together a watch list.  If your list creation process is solid, you might even be able to identify stocks before they crack the IBD® 50.  The earlier you can identify an opportunity, the more prepared you can be to pounce when a buy point hits. 

I hope this information helps you get into the habit of establishing a proper loss threshold for a position.  Watch for our 3rd and final part of this seres next Wednesday where we will examine ways you can identify a window of opportunity for a position.

As always, keep the comments and emails coming!


Happy Trading!


Amin Hemani
investorspotlight@gmail.com


Sunday, November 13, 2016

The Performance of Stocks on My Watch List of October 30th


Two weeks ago, we had all the 9 major sectors trading below the    200 day sma (simple moving average)   We also had an elevated risk in the market with   14 distribution days   between   $SPY   and   $NASDAQ.    A lot of my readers commented that they were fed up and had lost patience with the market trading sideways and going nowhere.   A disciplined trader continues to be engaged with the market, always has a   Stock Watch List   and a   Trade Plan   ready just in case the market decides to take a bullish turn.   This is exactly what happened Monday morning to everyone's surprise.   Rather than start looking for profitable opportunities on Monday morning,  I had already identified 10 stocks that I was monitoring over the weekend of October 29th.  (Reference my blog post of October 30th).  Here are the results of the performance of those 10 stocks in the last two weeks:

  1. $AKAM   - 6.38%
  2. $NFLX    - 9.32%
  3. $BHI       - 0.82%
  4. $PBR      -18.02%
  5. $MA        - 2.13%
  6. $FFIV     + 4.82%
  7. $NOC     + 8.37%
  8. $BAC     +14.03%
  9. $GS       + 15.13%
  10. $MS       + 14.83%

 

The total profit for all 10 positions combined  (5 losers and 5 winners)  came to a whopping   + 20.51%   in two weeks.   Some of you who know me from our local   IBD (Investors Business Daily)   meet up group in the Tampa Bay area know that I don't ever allow a loss of more than   - 4%.    Limiting losses to no more than  -4%   in the 3 losing positions  ($AKAM, $NFLX, $PBR)  would result in more than doubling the total profit to   + 42.23%   Lessons learned by readers are:

  • Build your  Stock Watch List  every week.
  • Have a   Trade Plan   for every stock on your watch list.
  • Execute your trade according to your trade plan for   LOSS  or  PROFIT   exits defined in your trade plan. 

Register for our 90 Minute Webinar on Saturday November 19th at 2:00 PM Eastern Time


If you would like to learn:

"How I Scan For Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"


The session will be live and recordings made available for participants.  The cost of the Webinar is  $49.00.


Please email me at   investorspotlight@gmail.com   to receive a link to the Webinar.


Class size is limited.  Guarantee your spot today.



Happy Trading!


Amin




Sunday, November 6, 2016

CASH is KING


I had a lot of my readers question my judgement last week when I indicated that this might be a good time to be in   CASH   Two weeks ago we had 10 distribution days and last week it mounted to 14.   Currently it is 15.   The bulk of those distribution days came in the last 30 days.   That is quite alarming.   As a Retail Trader who manages his own account,  I consider this to be a   "Market in Correction"   I just tweeted the following statement from  Jesse Livermore ( the greatest stock trader of our time)

"Every once in a while go to CASH, take a break.   Don't try to play the market all the time.   Too tough on the emotions"      



My Market Outlook


More than   75%   of the   S&P 500   companies have already reported their earnings and this week we will have more retailers report their earnings.      Stock Charts of retailers like   $JCP,  $SHLD,  $M,  $TJX   and the   $XRT  (Retail etf)  don't inspire much confidence.   They have been on the downtrend since mid August (back to school season) and now they are all trading below the   200 day sma  (simple moving average)   All the 9 major sector etf's are also trending in a downward slope and heading close to the    200 day sma    As a growth stock investor, I also monitor the small cap and mid cap growth stocks indexes   ($IVW,  $IJK,  $IJT)   and they are all pointing similarly in a down ward slope.   The only good piece of news that I have is that the transportation etf's -   $DJT   and   $IYT   are trading above the    50 day sma   There is a Dow theory that suggests that:
 
 "Transports generally indicate the strength of the economy"  

Quite frankly I prefer to look at the individual stock charts and sector etf's to get my sentiments of the market.

The coming week is an   Election Week   and everyone can expect that the market will have very high volatility.   This is the time to raise your trailing stops to conserve profits in a trade but also liquidate losing positions and build some   CASH   in your portfolio.   Continue to build your Stock Watch List and stay very engaged with the market.   Opportunities will come and you want to be prepared to take a position at the right time and at the right price.


Special 90 minutes Webinar


The subject of this Webinar will be:

"How I Scan For Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"


This special webinar will be on  November 19th @ 2.00 pm  (Eastern Time)


The session will be recorded and made available to all participants.  The cost of the webinar will be  $49.00


You will walk away from the session with a   "Stock Watch List"    and a   "Trade Plan"


I shall be sending out the   link   for those of you that have already indicated an interest.   It will be a limited class size so hurry and don't procrastinate.  It will be a high energy and fast paced presentation.   Send in questions that you would like addressed at the Webinar.


Happy Trading!


Amin


Sunday, October 30, 2016

Managing My Portfolio


I always remind myself that Institutions - hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds etc - are the ones that account for over 75% of the total daily volume in the market.   They determine what the price of any given stock would be on any given day just because of their sheer size of daily trading volume.   It takes them several weeks to accumulate the full position in any stock that they favour.   When they decide to bail out on stocks during earnings and start harvesting profits, stocks will gap down in high volume.   In the last 2 weeks we observed   $EBAY  dropped  (-10%)  and  $AMZN   dropped  (-5%)  during earnings.   Because of the sheer trading volume of these two stocks during earnings, over $1 billion changed hands that day with  $EBAY  and over  $10 Billion  with  $AMZN   This amount of trading volume will drag down all the major indexes as well as stocks that you have in your portfolio.   As a retail trader and investor, I am always fully aware of the earnings calendar since that affects my portfolio.


I was  'Cautiously Bullish'  in my tone with my Oct 9th blog post.   I started raising my trailing stops on my positions to protect my profits.   On Oct 16th blog post, we were in the second week of earnings and my tone changed to   'Bearish'   I began liquidating my losing positions and stayed with technology names only.   That was the only leading sector at that time.   Last week I mentioned that I was mostly in   CASH   This week we have a lot of energy names and 2 tech giants  -  $FB   and  $BABA   reporting earnings.   How the institutions will respond is any one's guess!   I know that  November thru January  are some of the best months of the year for profitable trades.   I would much rather be in    CASH   as a position now to avoid erosion of my capital.   Most of all, I prefer to have monies available to take some bullish positions, once the major indexes trend above the   8 day ema (exponential moving average)


Stock on My Watch List


Currently all the 9 major sectors are trading below the  200 day sma (simple moving average)   That does not bode well for me as a retail trader.   We also have an elevated risk in the market with  14 distribution days   between   $SPY   and   $NASDAQ    Last week we had only 10.   I am constantly scanning for growth and trending stocks that have an RS ratings above 90 and trading above the   8 day ema  in a strongly defined channel.   Following is a list of stocks that I am currently monitoring:

  1. $AKAM
  2. $FFIV
  3. $NFLX
  4. $NOC
  5. $BHI
  6. $BAC
  7. $GS
  8. $MS
  9. $MA
  10. $PBR
I am also monitoring 2 etf's -  $EWZ  and  $DXJ   for an Option position.


Mentoring Services


We are offering a 90 minutes  WEBINAR   on:


"How I Scan For Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"


You will walk away from the session with a   "Stock Watch List"  and a   "Trade Plan"

Learn to be a successful and a profitable trader/investor from one of the seasoned trader/investor and most dynamic speaker and an award winning educator.

If you would like to reserve a spot for yourself, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com



Be sure to check my tweets  @spotlightamin  during the week to keep yourself informed and up to speed with ever changing markets.


Happy Trading!

Amin

Monday, October 24, 2016

Being in CASH is a Position Too


I just got back from a dinner party at my friends house and some of them were discussing the merger between  $T   and   $TWX.   They wanted to know if this would be of a benefit to $T - the acquiring company.   I am a growth stock investor and I focus my energies into looking for only those stocks that are highly accumulated by the institutions.   I also look for stocks that are trading above the    21 day ema (exponential moving average)    Currently   $T   is trading below the   200 day sma (simple moving average)   It sliced through the   200 sma   on August 16th and has been trending below it precipitously for the last 8 weeks.   This is the stock that has not been on my radar in spite of all the noise from the media about the merger.   I am mostly in  CASH   at present.   I know from history, October is a very volatile month.   It is better to hold onto   CASH   as a position right now.   Market is still under pressure with   10 distribution days  -  according to  IBD  (investors Business Daily)   There is an elevated risk under present market conditions in taking stock positions right now.   I consider   CASH    as a position too.


My Market Outlook


This week we are right in the midst of earnings season.   Lot of energy names, airlines and giant tech stocks such as $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $BIDU as well as dividend paying defense stocks such as $RTN, GD, $LMT and $UTX will be reporting earnings.   They will move the market just because of their sheer size.   $SPY   and   $DJX   have been trending below the   50 day sma   for the last 8 weeks.   $QQQ    is the only index that is hovering above the   21 day ema    This is the only area where I have been focusing my energies for the past several weeks.   $XLK (technology)   is  even  and   $XLE (energy)   is up by   +2%   since the follow thru day 4 weeks ago.   It appears that we have a sector rotation going on right now.   4 of the 9 sectors -  $XLU (Utilities),  $XLV (Health Care),  $XLP (Consumer Staples)  and  $XLF (Financials)  are trading below the 200 day sma.   It appears that institutions are investing their harvested profits in the depressed energy names.   I had mentioned to my  IBD Meetup group on September 13th that energy sector is where there might be growth stocks popping up in the next growth cycle. 


Stocks on My Watch List


  1. $EMES
  2. $SLCA
  3. $PBR
  4. $CLR
  5. $FANG
  6. $PXD
  7. $APA
  8. $PE
  9. $REN
  10. $CPE
Some of these stocks are extended and may provide a good short term bullish Credit Put Spread Option Trades.   I would caution my readers however that we have a lot of stocks reporting earnings this week and the market could either tumble over or punch through the resistance.   It is all up to what the institutions decide to do.   They account for over 75% of the total trading volume daily.   This is the main reason why I have chosen to be in CASH mostly at this time.   I shall lay in wait - just like a leapord in the trees - for the right opportunity to come within my striking zone for a profitable kill.   I have already done my home work over the weekend and created a trade plan for any likely scenario in the market this week.   I hope my readers have done the same.


Happy Trading!

Amin

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Bears are Prowling


We are heading into the 3rd week of October and it could be a gut wrenching week.   It is one of the busiest weeks with earnings being reported by the banks, airlines, rail roads and some tech names like  $AMZN  and  $EBAY.    Market could either surge ahead or come crashing down like it did last week.   Last Monday October 10th, the leading index   $QQQ   was hovering above the    8 day ema (exponential moving average)   only to come crashing down to   34 day ema   by the end of the session.   Bears were definately in charge and none of the 9 major sectors were spared.   Currently only   $XLK (Technology)   and   $XLE (Energy)    are the leading sectors.   This is where the retail investor ought to be looking for opportunities in the market.


Market Outlook


My outlook of the market is very dim heading into the third week of October.   7 of the 9 major sectors are already trading below the   50 dma (day simple moving average)    4 of the 7 sectors   ($XLV (Health Care), $XLF (Financial), $XLU (Utilities) and $XLP (Consumer Staples)   are already heading into the bear territory, trading below or touching the   200 dma    How the institutions react to the earnings report this week will determine the direction of the market.   Using history as a guide,  I have to remind myself that major market crashes have occurred during the month of October.   It is also the month when in the year 2014,  $QQQ   surged over   +11%   from October 16th through Dec 5th   This requires for me to be totally prepared for either of those scenarios.   I would suggest to my followers to raise their trailing stops to protect profits in their positions but also to have a ready   "Watch List of Stocks"    to execute a trade, should the market take off like it did in 2014 and 2015 October


Mentoring Services 


We are planning on offering a  ONE TIME  special webinar for 90 minutes session on:

"How I Scan For Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"


It will be a very limited class size for this webinar.  If you would like to reserve a spot, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com


We will post the details of the date and time as soon as we fill the class.   There are just a few spots left so don't procrastinate.   You will walk away from the session with a    "Stock Watch List"    and a   "Trade Plan"


Learn to be a successful and a profitable trader/investor from one of the seasoned trader/investor and most dynamic speaker and an award winning educator.   

Be sure to check my tweets   @ spotlightamin   Monday morning before market opens for some of the stocks that are on   "My Watch List"



Happy Trading!

Amin



Sunday, October 9, 2016


Be Cautiously Bullish


We are heading into the most bullish period in the stock market.   Historically the market has returned on an average   +14.6%   from November thru April looking at the data from the last 50 years.   October traditionally has been a very volatile month with major market corrections occurring during the month.   We have also had   follow thru   days during this month where the market took off with gains of    +11% to +12.23%    within  5 to 12 weeks.   You want to be prepared and engaged with the market to take advantage of such an opportunity.   Lot of my followers and readers missed out on such an opportunity in:

  1. 2013 from Oct 8th thru Dec 31 for  + 11%   gain
  2. 2014 from Oct 16th thru Dec 5th for  +11%   gain
  3. 2015 from Sept 28th thru Nov 3rd for  +12.23%  gain
May thru September is when everyone should have been sharpening their trading skills.   I had posted a blog on August 28th  (They are archived and you can access them)  on the subject of   Virtual Trades   Hopefully my followers have been following my lead and have learnt to prepare realistic   Trade Plans   for Loss, Profit and Time exits.   


Market Outlook


Market is currently digesting the gains from the July 1st   Follow Thru Day   We do have an elevated   distribution   days count of 4 on the   $NASDAQ   and 7 on   $SPY    We are also heading into the 3rd quarter earnings season with   $AA   entering the confessional booth on Tuesday followed by the big banks on Friday.   This will be a very volatile week since the entire  $XLF (Financial)   sector is under severe stress.   The sector dropped  -18%   on Sept 16th and has stayed below the  200 day sma    $XLK (Technology)   is still leading the pack and that is where one should be looking for opportunities.   


Results of My Virtual Trades for Last Two Weeks


I was off for a mini vacation to Disney with the family last week but I tweeted to my followers that I shall be posting the results on the 19 stocks that I did a    Virtual Trade   on two weeks ago.   My   Trade Plan   was for   +10%   profit target,   -4%   for loss target and to be out of the position prior to earnings report as a time target.   I had  9  positions for a total loss of  -22.06%  (Ouch! Ouch! Ouch!)   I also had  10  positions for a total gain of  +30.64%    (yeah!)   All 19 positions combined, I attained a profit of   +8.58%   in just 2 wks

Here are the results for each individual positions:
  1. $GRUB  -0.47%
  2. $GIMO  -3.34%
  3. $PAYC  -1.57%
  4. $VEEV  -4.0%
  5. $ATVI   -0.14%
  6. $STOR  -4.0%
  7. $JACK  -4.0%
  8. $BGS   -2.88%
  9. $PKG   -1.66%
  10. $UBNT   +1.20%
  11. $PRAH   +3.21%
  12. $LITE     +7.96%
  13. $AMZN   +5.04%
  14. $MELI    +1.59%
  15. $ANET   + 0.06%
  16. $BABA   +0.10%
  17. $HQY     +3.01%
  18. $APC     +8.40%
  19. $WMB    + 0.07%

Mentoring Services


If you would like to learn our process of identifying winning growth stocks, sign up for our mentoring services.   we are planning on offering a   ONE TIME  special webinar for 90 minutes session on:

"How I scan for Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"


It will be a very limited class size for this webinar.   If you would like to reserve a spot, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com



Happy Trading!

Amin

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Market in Confirmed Uptrend


What a difference a week makes?   For the past several weeks,  $SPY  and  $QQQ  have been trading sideways.   Bulls and Bears have been playing   "Tug O War"  only to have bulls  GORED  two Fridays ago on Sept 9th.   Janet Yellen did her   YELLING  latter part of the week and spooked the bears into hiding.   $QQQ  continued to march on past the resistance of  $118.12  in volume 40% higher than average daily volume and surged above the  8 day ema (exponential moving average)   In the last 10 sessions,  $QQQ  has continued to lead and has surged  +3.54%   $SPY  on the other hand is stuck below the  50 day sma (simple moving average)  


My Market Outlook 


For the past several weeks, most of the stocks on  My Watch List  have been in the  Technology Sector  and most of the winners have also been in this sector.   That is understandable since  $QQQ  has been the leading index and   $XLK (Technology)   has been the leading sector.   All that changed on Monday September 19th when the market opened.   $XLF (Financial)   gapped down  -18%    Over  $Billion  changed hands for 5 days in a row last week in the sector.   You would have thought that all banks were going out of business!   Where did all that money get invested by the institutions?   Would you believe it was in the   $XLU (Utilities)?   Since there is going to be no rate increase  by the FEDS  until possibly in December,  institutions have chosen to invest their profits into dividend paying stocks.   $XLU   is up  +5.12%  in the last 2 weeks

I took the time this weekend to study the markets and do some analyses while the family was out for the day @ Disney Theme Park in Orlando.   I so desperately wanted to take part in it but than I had to remind myself that we just had a   "Follow Thru Day"   According to  Mr. William O'Neil of IBD   he suggests that one must buy something so as to dip your toes back in the market.   It has to be a Growth Stock that meets most of the  CANSLIM  criteria.    It is a critical time in the market since some good growth stocks just take off on such days and escape away from you from entering into a position at the right time for substantial gains.   This is one reason why every trader and investor has to stay engaged with the market even during times when the market is trending sideways.


IBD (Investor's Business Daily) Winning ETF Strategy


I am an accomplished and award winning educator and my experience as a teacher, mentor and a coach has taught me that some of the best students always prepare their  Stock Watch List  every week - regardless of the market condition.   They also do  Virtual Trades  to keep their trading skills sharp.   For the past several weeks, market has been trending sideways and most traders have lost patience.   Disciplined and patient traders in the mean time lay in the wait for the right stock to come into their view finder.   It is like a cheetah waiting patiently in the tall Savannah grass for the impala deer to come by within their striking distance for a successful hunt.

One very successful strategy to adapt is to buy   $QQQ  on a follow thru day when the market is in a   Confirmed Uptrend    Reduce your exposure to 50% of your position when the market condition changes to   Market under Pressure   CASH out your entire position when the market conditions deteriorate to   Market in Correction   This strategy has out performed  $SPY  since 2005.  This strategy produced an estimated cumulative return from   October 20th 2005 to June 30th 2016  of  +96%    while  $SPY  did only  +78%  over the same period


Mentoring Services

If you would like to learn our process of identifying winning growth stocks, sign up for our mentoring services.  We are planning on offering a one time special webinar for 60 - 90 minutes session on:

"How I scan for Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"


We have a very limited class size for this webinar.  If you are interested in attending this webinar, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com


Happy Trading!

Amin



Sunday, September 18, 2016

Bulls Were  GORED  but Survived


In my post last week, I alerted my readers to the possibility of the market turning lower during the week.   Friday Sept 19th was brutal with all the 9 major sectors slicing below the  50 dma  (day moving average)   $XLK (Technology Sector)  was the only sector that was spared and it just kissed the  50 dma   and bounced off it the next day in heavy volume.   This was the only sector that was heavily supported by the institutions.   It bounced up  +2.24%  for the week while the   $SPY   got stunned and stayed around  213.38  mark for the whole week.   $QQQ  on the other hand, bounced back up   +2.63%   from the 50 dma  in volume more than 50% above average daily volume.   The strength of the market is derived from the technology names.   Most of the Stocks on my Watch List in September have been in the Technology Sector


Results of Stocks on My Watch List Last Two Weeks


There were 12 stocks listed in my post in the last two weeks.  I thought my readers would like to know how they have performed during the  carnage  in the market in the month of September.   7  stocks had a cumulative gain of  +17.24%  and 5 stocks had a cumulative loss of  -15.93%  for a total gain of  +1.28%   That was an impressive performance during one of the worst months of the year.   $SPY   results was  -2.29%  while the leading index  $QQQ  did just  +0.15%  in the same time period.   Following are the results for each of those 12 stocks:

Winners

  1. $NVDA   +0.50%
  2. $GRUB   (stayed within a penny)
  3. $BABA   +5.43%
  4. $FB       +2.02%
  5. $IP        +0.14%
  6. $ATVI    +5.03%
  7. $AMAT  +4.12%

Losses

  1. $ACIA   -0.28%
  2. $EBAY  -0.38%
  3. $PE      -1.96%
  4. $CLR    -9.0%
  5. $PBR    -4.31%

Mentoring Services


If you would like to learn our process of identifying winning growth stocks, sign up for our mentoring services.  We are planning on offering a very  Special Webinar  for  60 - 90 minutes session on

"How I scan for Growth Stocks and How I create a Trade Plan"


We will have a limited size class for this webinar.   If you are interested in attending this webinar, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com


Happy Trading!

Amin



Sunday, September 11, 2016

Bears Clawed the Bulls


In my post last Monday, I had a bullish bias but I also alerted my readers to the possibility of a   Counter Trend   in a heathy bullish market.  Senior fund managers came back from their 3 day Labour Day weekend and began to realign their portfolios.  They harvested their profits from the three sectors  -  $XLP (Consumer Staples),  $XLP (Consumer Discretionary) and  $XLU (Utilities)   They invested their profits in the  $XLE (Energy) and  $XLF (Financial) sectors.   Every sector had a major distribution day on Friday.   $SPY  and  $DJX  sliced through below the 50 dma (day moving average)   $QQQ  fared a little better and just kissed the 50 dma  because the institutions supported some of the tech sector names.   $QQQ  had been the leading index since the low of June 27th and had surged  +15% by August 5th  as compared to  $SPY  which had surged just +9%  in the same time period.


My Market Outlook


Friday Sept 9th, We had a major  distribution day  and lot of traders suffered major losses in their positions.   I heard from a lot of my readers who were shocked and didn't quite know what to do with their positions.  My students that I mentor, were already out of their losing positions because they had planned their trades precisely to cut their losses short.   They were prepared for an eventuality such as the one we faced on Friday.   How did they know that we would have a major distribution day on Friday?  We did not know that this would happen on Friday but we were all fully aware of the fact that September is one of our worst months in the market.  Any trades that we executed were done with a very small position.  

What is in store for us Monday morning?   I did some analyses of the  $SPY  index.  On August 21st,  2015  (Friday)  and June 24, 2016  (Friday), market was clawed by the bears and the following Monday, market got clobbered again in high volume.   $SPY  sliced through the  200 dma  in heavy volume.   Could the same thing happen again on Monday?   I don't have an answer to that but one should be prepared for such an eventuality and trade accordingly.  It would be unwise to take on a bullish position knowing what happened previously after the market corrected on Friday and what followed on Monday.   Just recently after the market corrected for 4 days from June 24th through June 27th, we had a rally for 3 days.   We had a follow thru day on July 1st and every one was in holiday spirits for July 4th.   This was the time to be in the market just when everyone had given up.   $SPY  rallied +9%  within 4 weeks while  $QQQ  rallied close to +15%


Stocks on My Watch List


Lot of stocks got clobbered this week but quite a few managed to stay above the  20 dma  while the major indexes had sliced through the  50 dma  These are the stocks that institutions are supporting.   Once the market resumes its uptrend,  these are some of the stocks that I shall be monitoring.

  1. $EBAY
  2. $IP
  3. $PE
  4. $CLR
  5. $PBR
  6. $FB
  7. $ATVI
  8. $BABA
  9. $ACIA
  10. $AMAT

Mentoring Service

I have had a very special request from my followers on Tweeter and Linkdin regarding a webinar for 60 - 90 minute session.  They have been asking me to give a session on:

How I Scan for Growth Stocks How I create a Trade Plan

If you are interested in attending this webinar, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com 

We will have a limited size class for this webinar.


Happy Trading!

Amin



Monday, September 5, 2016

Bulls Have The Edge


We are heading into the worst month of the year in the market.   Labour Day weekend is over and this is when all the senior fund managers and traders come back to their trading desks after relaxing and barbecuing with the family.   They realign their portfolios, harvesting profits from winning positions and deploying them into trending stocks.   Earnings is out of the way since more than 90% of S&P 500 companies have already reported their earnings.   What sectors and what specific stocks will they be deploying their harvested profits into this month?   I took the time over this long weekend to scrutinize over 100 stock charts, the 3 major indexes  - $DJX, $QQQ, $SPY -  that I monitor and read some of the commentaries from my trust worthy sources.   The trend is bullish.   We had a mediocre jobs report for August released on Friday and the market moved up.   Market sent the signal that they don't anticipate a rate increase in Sept.   

I am not a  "Day Trader"  and as such my bullish outlook is for the long term.   In any  Bullish Trend   it is quite normal to also experience a  Counter Trend   For the last 8 weeks,  $SPY   has been trading very tightly within 1%  but  $QQQ   has been trading in such a manner for only 4 weeks.  I am a   Growth Stock  investor and this is a very telling sign for me.    While  $SPY   made a gain of 10% by mid July from June 27th lows,  $QQQ   exhibited strength and continued to outperform the market for a 15% gain, for 3 more weeks past mid July.   Currently,  $XLK (Technology)  is outperforming all other sectors, pretty much in lock step and barrel fashion with the   $QQQ   That is where I am focusing my attention for profitable trades this week.  


Stocks on My Watch List


There are a lot of stocks that have been consolidating for the past several weeks and setting up a flat or three weeks tight bases.   Some of these are good candidates for adding onto your current position or for making initial buys.    
  
  1. $NVDA
  2. $GRUB
  3. $BABA
  4. $ACIA
  5. $FB

Virtual Trades


In my mentoring program, my students are always asked to practice skills of trading by doing  Virtual Trades   This is a  Risk Free  way to learn to trade.   In my previous career in the airline industry,  all the pilots practiced flight operations in a   Flight Simulator   This is how they perfected their skills at flying.   Trading is very similar in that fashion too and all successful and profitable traders do this consistently.   After a while, it just becomes a habit.  Market constantly changes and the only way to keep up with it is to consistently build a  Stock Watch List  and practice virtual trades on them. 


Mentoring Service


September is an ideal month to learn and refine your trading skills.  We are filling our sessions for this month and just a few slots are left.   If you would like to schedule a FREE 30 minutes of   "Discovery Call"   to explore our mentoring services, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

Stop losing money trading and learn our disciplined method of building an actionable stock watch list.   Learn how to create a Trade Plan and how to mange your trades for Profit and mitigate Losses for trades that go against you.



Happy Trading!

Amin



 




Sunday, August 28, 2016

Virtual Trade


What is a  "Virtual Trade"  I am asked this question every time I mention it to my audience and my followers.  It is a trade that you execute without putting any of your real money in the trade.  Sometimes it is called a  "Paper Trade"   Most brokers offer this on their platform.  They will fund it for you with virtual currency for you to practice trading without using any of your real money in your account.  Most seasoned traders utilize this venue to practice trading or to test out new trading ideas.  It is a   Risk Free  way to sharpen your trading skills.  Personally I use this tool every week.  As a retail trader, I build my  Stock Watch List  every weekend.  I may have just enough capital to execute just one or two stock trades or option trades on the stocks the following week.   I would also place some trades on the virtual account from stocks on my  Watch List  to sharpen my trading skills and to keep me in tune with the markets.  It takes some work to do this but one has to stay disciplined enough to treat each of these virtual trades as if there was real money at risk in the market.  Plan these trades just as you would any other actual trades and journal it to learn from it.


Lessons Learnt From Last Week


There were 3 stock trades that some of my students that I mentor placed on their virtual accounts last week to practice their trading skills.  Two of those trades they got stopped out for -4% loss and the other one is just hovering around the price where it was purchased.  Some very important lessons were learnt with these virtual trades and it was documented in the trade journal for each of these stock trades.  Here are the results of those trades and lessons learnt documented:

  1. $LN trade placed on Monday Aug 22 at $46 entry for  +10%  Profit Exit  at $50.60 and Loss Exit for  -5%  at $43.70  Wednesday Aug 24 we had a distribution day and the stock met its Loss Target.
  2. $VIPS trade placed on Monday Aug 22 at $15.60 entry for  +10%  Profit Exit  at $16.85 and Loss Exit for  -5%  at $14.97  Wednesday Aug 24 we had a distribution day and the stock met its Loss Target
Lesson on $LN ... This is a thin stock trading less than $50 million daily volume.  We prefer to trade only those Growth Stocks that trade more than $100 million daily volume under current market conditions.   Thin stocks are more volatile and it gets harder to hold on to during distribution days.  $LN is also a recent IPO (Initial Public Offering) with only 7 weeks of trading history. 

Lesson on $VIPS ... This stock is very liquid and trades over 7 million shares daily.  It trades over $100 million daily volume.  Stock had surged 53% in the 8 weeks prior to placing the trade but once again, distribution day on Wednesday Aug 24 led the stock to meet its Loss Target.  Ideal entry for this stock was at $15.13  If We had entered the trade at just maximum of 1% past its buy point ($15.28 Entry)  We would still be in the trade in spite of the distribution day on Wednesday.  During summer months of June/July/August/Sept,  We prefer not to go beyond 1% past the ideal buy point.   $VIPS had an RS ratings of 84 and We prefer to look at only those stocks that have an RS ratings above 90

In our mentoring and coaching program, We have certain rules to trading. The two stocks above violated some of those rules.  We developed these rules of trading from experience over the years.  These rules were designed to get the probabilities of winning trades on our side.  


Mentoring Service


We are filling our classes for  September  sessions and there are just a handful of slots left.  If you would like to schedule a FREE 30 minutes of  "Discovery Call"    to explore our mentoring service, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

Market does best between October and May.  This is an ideal time to get into our mentoring program and learn to make profitable trades.  Reserve your slot now before they are all gone.

Happy Trading!

Amin


DISCLAIMER



Do not take a position unless you are prepared to sustain a TOTAL LOSS. Your loss could include the money you invested as well as commissions and transaction charges.


The Information I provide is for education and informational purposes only. The Information provided is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. The Information provided is general in nature and is not specific to you or anyone else.


YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, BASED ON ANY OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED WITHOUT UNDERTAKING INDEPENDENT DUE DILIGENCE AND CONSULTATION WITH A LICENSED PROFESSIONAL. You understand that you are using this Information AT YOUR OWN RISK.