M E X I C O

"Once  a  year,  go  someplace  you've  never  been  before"

By  Dalai Lama

I have read this statement before and every once in a while I remind myself to do just that.  It forces me to think outside the box.  I have travelled to many countries and most states of the union with the exception of just 5 in the Northwest and Alaska.  2 weeks ago I decided on the spur of the moment to escape the Florida heat and humidity and head out to the remote mountain places in Mexico central highlands.  Market is just trading sideways and the 3 major indexes - $DJI, $SPY and $QQQ are all hovering and bouncing up and down the 50 day simple moving averages (sma).  It's best to stay out of the market for now and travel to get a better perspective.

There is so much noise in the market with constant commentaries in print and broadcast media on interest rates, trade wars with China and Europe, ratifying the new NAFTA deal, North Korea nuclear deal and sanctions against Iran, border wall on the southern border, oil disruptions in the Persian gulf and now finally the impeachment hearings against Mr. Trump.  I headed south of the border to actually experience Mexico from the perspectives of a local living there in the heart of Mexico where the majority of the population lives.  Here are some facts and my personal observations looking through the eye glasses as an investor and a trader.

Mexico is a republic just like the US.  It has 31 states and the federal district of Mexico City.  It has a free market economy that is the 11th largest economy in the world with a population of 129 million people.  Per capita income based on purchasing power parity is $20,645 as compared to the US which is over $50,000.  I was astonished to find out that the unemployment rate is 3.6% as compared to Western developed world of the Eurozone where its 7.5% and the US with 3.7% unemployment rate. It has one of the worlds best demographics with over 46% of the population under the age of 40 and only 7% 65 plus.  US on the other hand has baby boomers of over 80 million (25% of US population)  and now retiring in droves.

Mexico just celebrated 209th year of independence while I was there.  I was in the most remote part in the central highlands during celebrations.  People were very friendly and out going and welcoming me just because I uttered a few words in Spanish.  I ate what they ate and most of the time I wasn't sure what I was eating but it was all delicious.  80% of the population has a cell phone and they all seemed prosperous to me.  It is one of the most urbanized country in the world with close to 78% of the population living in 5 major cities around the central Mexico city that has 21 million ppl living there (that translates to the entire population of my state of Florida living in just one city).

Wow !   Wow!   Wow!

I was fascinated to read and experience Mexico again.  I have visited the country numerous times but just as a typical tourist that visits the Yucatan or Baja or the beach communities of Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta.  The richest man in the world with a personal fortune of over $60 billion Mr Carlos Slim - just like Mr. Warren Buffett - is a businessman and an investor with reaches in all the major aspects of the Mexican economy.  Mexico is the 7th largest producer of oil.  89 out of 100 top auto parts makers have production facilities in the country.  Ford, Audi, Mercedes, BMW and Nissan have auto plants in the country.  Most Mexicans are employed in the service industries.  Financial services, technology and manufacturing are the major sectors where people are employed.  

I am a trader and an investor first and foremost.  I don't express my personal opinions or politics when investing.  That is what businesses do in US as well.  Lately the market has been responding to the news on a daily basis.  There is a lot of uncertainty in the market.  In my last several posts I was highlighting how best to look at simple moving averages to determine entry and exits of stock position.  Market is highly volatile and now we are back with the change in the market pulse to  "Market Under Pressure"  as highlighted by the Investors Business Daily.  Its a good thing I left for Mexico and learn to make a trading and investing decision on my own with my own observations.  Every retail investor ought to do that and not listen to the noise that is spilled out in the media.  It will ruin you financially and you will lose your emotional capital that is crucial to succeeding and profiting in the market.

Happy Trading!

Amin

Simple    Moving    Average    Lines

"We've all heard the saying, 'timing is everything'. This is just as true in the stock market as it is in life. Knowing the optimal time to buy or sell a stock is a valuable skill anyone can and should learn" 

By Willian J O'Neil (Founder of Investors Business Daily)

Simple moving average (sma) lines are very simple tools to use for taking a position in a stock but also to exit a position for profit as well as exiting the position to mitigate loss.  Institutions account for more than 70% of the trading volume in the stock market.  Ultimately it is them that determine what the stock price is going to be.  If they  decide to enter a stock position, it may take them several weeks to accumulate the entire position.  Stocks will show that by having the price of the stock staying close to the faster moving 10 day and 20 day sma.  Conversely, if they decide to exit the position, it will show up as high volume of stock trading and the price will begin to get depressed lower.  It will show up as the  faster 10 day and the 20 day sma heading lower towards the  slower moving 50 day sma. 

In my blog post on August 18th, I had shared 4 stock positions that were initiated on a  "Follow Thru"  day of August 14th.  They were identified by me as the leading stocks in the leading industries that institutions had already exhibited an interest in.  Some of them had gapped up in price during the earnings announcement - $MTH, $PCTY, $SBUX.  That is a clear signal that institutions were bidding up the price to acquire their position.  $PAYC on the other hand was staying above the faster 20 day sma since end of January.  That is a clear foot print left by the institutions that they want to continue to acquire a hefty position in the stock.

Performance  of  the  4  Stocks

Utilizing the tools of sma, one can start initiating a position when the stock is trading along the faster moving average 10 day and 20 day lines.  If the market is in a  "Confirmed Uptrend"  as identified in the market pulse column of IBD(Investors Business Daily) publication, retail investors should start out a small test position in the leading stocks in the leading sector on a  "Follow Thru"  day.  That is precisely what was done by initiating the 4 stocks positions that I mentioned.  Once the stock moves lower down towards the 50 day sma and crosses below that, it is a signal that the institutions are no longer interested in the stock.  It's time to exit the stock and cut your losses short.  3 of these stocks crossed the 50 day sma and exited the position at market open the next day.  One stock continued to move higher along the faster 10 day and 20 day sma.  Second position was initiated on that stock that institution continued to support with their purchases.

Here are the results of the 4 stocks compared to the 3 leading indexes that I monitor:

Stocks ;

1. $PCTY  ... - 5.56%
2. $PAYC  ... - 5.63%
3. $SBUX  ... - 5.97%
4. $MTH   ... +13.39% first position, +8.63% second position initiated on Sept 9th at $64.71

Indexes;

1. $QQQ  ... +2.96%
2. $DJI     ... +3.46%
3. $SPY   ... +3.54%

There were 3 losing positions and 2 winning positions.  Cutting the losses short by observing the sma lines helped me gain + 4.86% since August 14th  "Follow Thru"  day.  It outperformed the 3 leading indexes as well.  

Mentoring  Program

We are entering a traditionally very profitable 4th quarter in the stock market.  It will be a volatile month in October.  My mentoring schedule is very hectic for the next few months.  There are lots of nuances of timing the market utilizing sma as a tool.  I have explained some of these concepts in very simple terms in my last 4 blog posts.  If you would like to learn the precision methods that I utilize - along with observing the sma lines - I will gladly try to accommodate just a few students in the 4th quarter.  It will be on a first come first served basis.

Schedule a  FREE  30 minutes of   'Discovery Call'  with us and investigate how our program can help you Out Perform the Market like I do.

Contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

Happy Trading!

Amin

Stock   Charts   Are   Maps 

"I always check my charts and the moving averages prior to taking a position"
By Marty Schwartz (Wall street trader and winner of US investing championship in 1984)

Market conditions improved on Thursday Sept 5th when all the 3 major indexes - $DJI, $QQQ and $SPY gapped up at the open and bolted past the 50 day simple moving average in volume greater than the average daily volume.  IBD (Investors Business Daily) updated the market pulse to  "Market in Confirmed Uptrend".  That's a signal to retail investors to start taking some positions or to add onto the positions that held up well from the last  "Follow Thru"  day we had on August 14th.  Understanding the simple moving averages that I highlighted in my last 2 posts would help you decide which stocks to build on with a second position and at what price to initiate that position.

Simple moving average (sma) lines are like maps of what the stock is doing on any given day or the week.  It exposes the intentions of the institutions with the stock.  As a retail trader and an investor of Growth Stocks, we want to do exactly what the institutions are doing.  They ultimately decide what the stock does because they account for more than 70% of the buying and selling of stocks in the market.

The 4 stocks that I had mentioned in my post - $SBUX, $PAYC, $MTH and $PCTY - are all hovering above the 10 day sma for the last 4 weeks.  The 3 major indexes - $DJI, $SPY and $QQQ on the other hand have been bouncing up and down between the 50 day and the 200 day sma.  These 4 stocks indicates support from the institutions since they all are showing strength of support by staying above the 10 day sma.  Here are the resistance and support lines that I came up with before initiating a second position on these stocks.  These lines were drawn utilizing the lines of the 10 day sma.

• $SBUX   ... $96.04 ($95.75 triggered at market open on Friday Sept 6)
• $PAYC   ... $246.85 (Open order as of Friday Sept 6)
• $MTH    ... $ 64.71 (Open order as of Friday Sept 6)
• $PCTY  ... $107.95 ($107.95 triggered during the trading day Friday Sept 6)

Mentoring  Program

I shall be opening up a few slots in October in my Mentoring Program.  Summer training slots were very quickly snapped up and these months provided lots of opportunities to profit in the market.  We are heading into the 4th quarter which is a very busy and a profitable quarter traditionally.  If you are serious about speeding up your learning curve than I shall open up a few slots in the coming months.  It will be on a first come first served basis only.  We have already attained  +20%  gain with the leading growth stock index $QQQ year to date.  We could have an additional  +10%  gain in the next 4 months.  Now is an ideal time to learn to trade and invest utilizing growth stock strategies of IBD(Investors Business Daily).  

Schedule a  FREE  30 minutes of  "Discovery Call"  with us and investigate how our program can help you learn the basics of reading the Stock Charts:

• How to find the winning Growth Stocks?
• How to Buy the Stocks Right?
• How to Sell the stocks Right?
• How to TIME the market?
• How to protect and harvest your profits? 

Contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

Happy Trading!

Amin

 

Simple    Moving    Average

"The market has a way of whittling all excessive pride & over blown egos down to size. The whole idea is to be completely objective & recognize what the marketplace is telling you, not try to prove that the thing you said or did yesterday or 6 weeks ago was right"

By William O'Neil (Founder of Investors Business Daily)

One of the simplest and easiest ways to track the performance of a stock is to plot the price of a stock along some very simple moving price averages(sma).  Most common ones that are utilized are:

• 10 days (faster moving average for swing trading growth stocks investors)
• 20 days (faster moving average for growth stock investors)
• 30 days (moving average utilized for faster moving 30 day sma cross over trading against the slower moving 50 day sma)
• 50 days (slower moving average utilized by institutions as a support area)
• 100 days (slower moving average utilized by institutions as a support/resistance area with volatile markets or stocks)
• 200 days (slower moving average over a longer time frame utilized by institutions for their larger holdings in their portfolio)

Simple moving average is the most widely known technical indicator.  It's easy to understand.  Closing price is averaged out over a specific number of trading days.  20 day sma is calculated by adding the closing price of each trading day over the last 20 trading days and averaged out by dividing it by 20 and plotting that line along the price bar of the stock.  It shows the price of the stock on any given day against the moving average line plotted on the stock chart.  It's a moving average because everyday, the new day price is added and the previous 21st day taken off the the list.  The line moves up or down daily with the new day of trading.  

Performance  of  My  4  Stocks

We had a  "Follow Thru"  day on Wednesday August 14th (13 days ago).  Market quickly changed its tune and now we have  7 distributions days between the  $NASDAQ  and  $SPY.  Market pulse has been changed to   "Market Under Pressure".  It's not the time to be taking any new positions under such conditions.  Understanding the concept of the simple moving averages will help you in holding your biases about the stocks.  If  your stocks are hovering around the faster moving 20 day sma while the the major indexes like  $DJI, $SPY and $QQQ  are below the 50 day, it tells you that institutions have a preferance for stocks that are further away from the 50 day sma and closer to the faster moving 20 day sma.  

In the last 13 trading sessions since the  "Follow Thru"  day, the performance of the 3 major indexes as well as the 4 stocks I suggested that we study are:

Indexes:

1. $QQQ   ... +1.17%
2. $DJI      ... +1.41%
3. $SPY    ... +1.52%

Stocks:

1. $SBUX   ... +0.68%
2. $PAYC   ... +4.91%
3. $MTH    ... +5.39%
4. $PCTY  ... +6.95%

Average           ... +4.57%

Data is very clear when you start looking at the simple moving averages.  It doesn't matter what your feelings are about the stock with it's fundamentals and technicals.  This data is what should ultimately drive your decisions about the stock.  Simple moving average line helps you to decide which stocks are preferred by the institutions.  They decide the movement of the price of the stock.  Currently all 4 stocks are along the 10 day sma while the general market as exhibited by the 3 indexes highlighted are struggling below the 50 day sma.  Average performance of these 4 stocks over the last 13 trading sessions is a whopping  3  times better than the performance of the general market using  $SPY  as a proxy for general market performance.  

Happy Trading!

Amin