M E X I C O

"Once  a  year,  go  someplace  you've  never  been  before"

By  Dalai Lama

I have read this statement before and every once in a while I remind myself to do just that.  It forces me to think outside the box.  I have travelled to many countries and most states of the union with the exception of just 5 in the Northwest and Alaska.  2 weeks ago I decided on the spur of the moment to escape the Florida heat and humidity and head out to the remote mountain places in Mexico central highlands.  Market is just trading sideways and the 3 major indexes - $DJI, $SPY and $QQQ are all hovering and bouncing up and down the 50 day simple moving averages (sma).  It's best to stay out of the market for now and travel to get a better perspective.

There is so much noise in the market with constant commentaries in print and broadcast media on interest rates, trade wars with China and Europe, ratifying the new NAFTA deal, North Korea nuclear deal and sanctions against Iran, border wall on the southern border, oil disruptions in the Persian gulf and now finally the impeachment hearings against Mr. Trump.  I headed south of the border to actually experience Mexico from the perspectives of a local living there in the heart of Mexico where the majority of the population lives.  Here are some facts and my personal observations looking through the eye glasses as an investor and a trader.

Mexico is a republic just like the US.  It has 31 states and the federal district of Mexico City.  It has a free market economy that is the 11th largest economy in the world with a population of 129 million people.  Per capita income based on purchasing power parity is $20,645 as compared to the US which is over $50,000.  I was astonished to find out that the unemployment rate is 3.6% as compared to Western developed world of the Eurozone where its 7.5% and the US with 3.7% unemployment rate. It has one of the worlds best demographics with over 46% of the population under the age of 40 and only 7% 65 plus.  US on the other hand has baby boomers of over 80 million (25% of US population)  and now retiring in droves.

Mexico just celebrated 209th year of independence while I was there.  I was in the most remote part in the central highlands during celebrations.  People were very friendly and out going and welcoming me just because I uttered a few words in Spanish.  I ate what they ate and most of the time I wasn't sure what I was eating but it was all delicious.  80% of the population has a cell phone and they all seemed prosperous to me.  It is one of the most urbanized country in the world with close to 78% of the population living in 5 major cities around the central Mexico city that has 21 million ppl living there (that translates to the entire population of my state of Florida living in just one city).

Wow !   Wow!   Wow!

I was fascinated to read and experience Mexico again.  I have visited the country numerous times but just as a typical tourist that visits the Yucatan or Baja or the beach communities of Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta.  The richest man in the world with a personal fortune of over $60 billion Mr Carlos Slim - just like Mr. Warren Buffett - is a businessman and an investor with reaches in all the major aspects of the Mexican economy.  Mexico is the 7th largest producer of oil.  89 out of 100 top auto parts makers have production facilities in the country.  Ford, Audi, Mercedes, BMW and Nissan have auto plants in the country.  Most Mexicans are employed in the service industries.  Financial services, technology and manufacturing are the major sectors where people are employed.  

I am a trader and an investor first and foremost.  I don't express my personal opinions or politics when investing.  That is what businesses do in US as well.  Lately the market has been responding to the news on a daily basis.  There is a lot of uncertainty in the market.  In my last several posts I was highlighting how best to look at simple moving averages to determine entry and exits of stock position.  Market is highly volatile and now we are back with the change in the market pulse to  "Market Under Pressure"  as highlighted by the Investors Business Daily.  Its a good thing I left for Mexico and learn to make a trading and investing decision on my own with my own observations.  Every retail investor ought to do that and not listen to the noise that is spilled out in the media.  It will ruin you financially and you will lose your emotional capital that is crucial to succeeding and profiting in the market.

Happy Trading!

Amin