Market  Outlook

One would think that the  "Sky was Falling"  last week if you were paying attention to all the news about the immigration and tariffs.  Its tit for tat between China/Euro zone/Canada and the US with tariffs.  Insults are being exchanged between Mr. Trump and Mr. Trudeau of Canada with tariffs being placed on the Canadian goods.  We ended up with 6  'distribution days'  last week between the  $NASDAQ  and the  $SPY.  That is concerning to have so many distribution days in a cluster within a week.  Its not the time to panic though.  Market is still in a  'Confirmed Uptrend'  according to the IBD (Investors Business Daily).  Upon closer study of the charts of the 3 major indexes, the leading index  $QQQ is still hovering around the 8 day ema(exponential moving average).  That is sign that the leading stocks in the leading index are still holding up very well under current market conditions. 

For the month of June, the performance of the 3 indexes is as follows:

1. $DJI     ... + 0.68%
2. $SPY   ... + 1.40%
3. $QQQ  ... + 3.09% (Leading Index)

Markets don't go up straight every day and every week.  Reasons why so many traders and investors panic is that they pay too much attention to the news day to day and tick by tick performance of their stocks.  $DJI is the only index that is trading below the 50 day sma(simple moving average).  $SPY (a proxy to track the overall performance of the US market) is still trading at the 21 day ema while the leading index  $QQQ  is showing strength and trading along the 8 day ema.

Performance of  15 Stocks  on My Stock Watchlist

Just a reminder to my readers that the last week of June in 2016 as well as 2017, market began to stumble and went into a correction.  To everyones surprise, the market came roaring back right around the holidays of July 4th and we had a  'Follow Thru'  day soon after.  Traders and investors who were engaged with the market and did their homework over the holidays were rewarded handsomely.  Leading stocks in the leading sector broke out during the first 2 weeks of July while we were all bombarded with the Brexit event all over the television media.  If you paid too much attention to the news event and did not look over the data of price and volume on a stock chart, you would have missed the boat of attaining profits of  +10%  to +20%   within 6 to 8 weeks. 

Following is the performance of the 15 stocks for the last week.  I have indicated  %  gain or loss for the week and the cumulative performance of all the 15 stocks (6 losing positions and 9 winning positions).

1. $AAXN   ... + 5.05%
2. $ABMD   ... - 3.59%
3. $BCOR   ... + 2.14% 
4. $CRC      ... + 21.82%
5. $FIVE    ...   - 1.35%
6. $INGN   ...   +1.35%
7. $SHAK   ...  + 5.39%
8. $SIVB   ...   - 1.79%
9. $TCMD  ...  - 4.73%
10. $THC    ...   + 0.80%
11. $TTD     ...  + 2.15%
12. $TTGT   ...  + 2.53%  
13. $TWLO  ...  - 7.84% 
14. $WWE    ... + 7.13%
15. $ZTO     ...  - 8.46%

Cumulative performance of the 15 stocks for last week was + 20.60% (6 losing position -27.76%  and 9 winning positions + 48.36%)

The leading index $QQQ  performance for last week was  - 0.94% 

This is one reason why one shouldn't panic and react to every news event or market performance on a daily basis.  It's a good idea to study the stock charts over the week end and make decisions based on the data instead of how you feel about the market.  Market really doesn't care about your opinions. 

Mentoring  Program

Our schedule for mentoring new students is filling up fast for July and August.  Traditionally October through January are the best performing months in the market.  Secure your spot now before those slots fill up.

Would you like to learn:

• How to select the winning stocks like  $ABMD  that have gained + 128% year to date?
• How to Time the market with    'Follow Thru'  Days?
• How to scale into the stocks as the stock continues to profit?
• How to scale out of the stocks during market correction ?

Schedule a  FREE  30 minutes of  'Discovery Call'  with us and let us help you profit in the market.  Don't continue to lose money in the market and fail to out perform the market.  Let us show you how to look for Growth Stocks and how best to profit from it.

Happy Trading!

Amin

Market  is  Efficient

I know some of you react to every piece of news out there that can possibly affect the market on any given day.  You start getting nervous and start looking over your stock positions closely.  Its the very wrong thing to do to get your emotions all worked up.  Pretty soon you make decisions based on your emotions and neglect to look at the data.  Markets have all the facts and its all factored in.  We have tweeting Trump talking about tariffs since March of this year.  North Korea has been in the news for years and its nothing new.  European central banks had already mentioned in September of 2017 that they will start winding down the easy money policy.  None of this is a surprise for the markets.

Currently the market is still acting bullish and we have just 8 distribution days - only 2 of them are in the  $NASDAQ  and 6  are in the  $SPY.  Its important to look at the stock charts.  Look at the daily chart but also at the weekly charts.  It is a graphical expression of what the price and volume is on any given time period.  One day performance of the market doesn't really make a difference.  Its good to look at the weekly charts to accurately determine the performance of the stock.  It helps us assess the data and not close out our positions prematurely. 

Market  Performance 

Looking over the average performance of $SPY over the last 50 years, June delivers  +0.02%  on average.  Its a sleepy month usually.  This year however, its quite different.  For the first 2 weeks of June so far, the performance of the 3 major indexes is as follows:

1. $SPY     ... +1.29%
2. $DJI       ... +1.85%
3. $QQQ    ... +2.45%    

That is a stellar performance so far.  If you paid too much attention to the news, you would think that the market would derail and the follow thru day we had 5 weeks ago would start to fumble.  That did not happen. This is why one has to discipline themselves to look at the data and make decisions based on that.  There are no opinions or your personal bias in the picture.  I can gurantee you that the hedge funds have taken every piece of news into consideration before committing their money to accumulating shares of the company of their choice.  That is why we as retail investors take our lead from what the institutions are doing.  They account for over  75%  of the total volume in the market on any given day.  Stock charts gives you a graphical expression of what they are doing in the market. 

Stocks  to  Monitor

Institutions usually make a major dollar commitment when they start initiating a position in a stock.  It may take them several weeks and several hundred million dollars to accumulate the full position on a stock of their choice.  Following are some of those stocks that had a spike in volume during the last several weeks.  It takes a couple of weeks for the stock to move sideways and form a new base.  I have these stocks on My Watch List and I have identified the initial resistance point for each of those stocks in parenthesis as a guide.

1. $AAXN      (64.94)
2. $ABMD     (415.00)   
3. $BCOR     (37.75) 
4. $CRC       (33.96)
5. $FIVE       (100.97)
6. $INGN      (182.08)
7. $SHAK     (62.54)
8. $SIVB       (306.94) 
9. $TCMD    (52.23)
10. $THC       (37.25)
11. $TTD       (83.37)
12. $TTGT     (28.31)
13. $TWLO    (55.20)
14. $WWE     (60.51)
15. $ZTO       (21.70)

Mentoring  Program

Our schedule for mentoring new students is filling up fast for the summer months.  There are very limited number of slots available for July and August.  Market usually takes a breather during the summer months and its an ideal time to refine your trading skills.  Secure your spot now before those slots fill up.

Schedule a  FREE  30 minutes of  'Discovery Call'  with us and let us help you profit in the market.  Don't continue to lose money in the market and fail to out perform the market.  Let us show you how to look for Growth Stocks and how best to profit from it.

Happy Trading!

Amin

Market  Outlook  

I took last week off and headed off to Disney resorts with the family.  We all should take some time away from the markets to reenergize and refocus.  Its amazing how the market looks when you come back with a fresh pair of eyes.  The resorts were at 90% occupancy and the parks were filled with tourists from South America as well as from other states and Florida residents too.  Restaurants were all very busy and most of them were packed with customers.  Gas prices at the pumps had stabilized at $2.70 at most places.  Orlando airport was very busy with flights packed and rental car agencies operating at full capacity.  This leads me conclude that US economy is firing up on all cylinders.  70%  of US economy is dependent upon consumer spending and I witnessed it first hand last week.  Market looks very bullish although we have a total of 10  distribution days  between the  $SPY  and  $NASDAQ.

Our last  "Follow Thru"  was 4 weeks ago on May 10th.  The 3 indexes - $DJI, $SPY and $QQQ - are all trading above the 8 day ema(exponential moving average).  $QQQ is the leading index and it has been trading above the 8 day ema for 5 weeks now.  It hasn't even breached the 21 day ema during any of the  distribution days  we have had in the last 5 weeks.  Here are the performance results of these 3 indexes since the  "Follow Thru"  day on May 10th and the 2 leading sectors that have been trading above the 8 day ema for the last 5 weeks. 

Indexes: 

1. $DJI     ... +2.33%
2. $SPY   ... +2.90%
3. $QQQ  ... +3.57%

Leading Sectors:

1. $XLY   ... +5.02% (Consumer Discretionary)
2. $XLK   ... +2.43% (Technology Sector)

This shouldn't surprise anyone infact.  Last week of March we went through an  -8%  correction in the market and I had identified 25 stocks (March 25th blog post) that withstood the correction.  These were the stocks that were supported by the institutions.  They held onto these stocks.  This provided us with the opportunity to establish a position on them during the subsequent  "Follow Thru"  days we had on April 10th as well as May 10th.  Most of these stocks were from the 2 leading sectors mentioned above.

Mentoring  Program

Our schedule for mentoring new students is filling up fast for the summer months.  There are very limited number of slots available for July and August.  Market usually takes a breather during the summer months and its an ideal time to refine your trading skills.  Secure your spot now before those slots fill up.

Schedule a  FREE  30 minutes of  'Discovery Call'  with us and let us help you profit in the market.  Don't continue to lose money in the market and fail to out perform the market.  Let us show you how to look for Growth Stocks and how best to profit from it.

Happy Trading!

Amin