Best  Quarters  Ahead

Ever since 1896 when the  $DOW  started trading, each of the next 2 quarters - 4th quarter and the 1st quarter - have closed higher  73.3%  of the time during the midterm Presidential cycle.  LPL Financial Inc. published a chart last week on tweeter where they showed that the next 3 quarters during the Presidential mid term cycle, the performance of the market has been +4.0%, +5% and +3.6%  respectively.  That's a phenomenal performance.  Historically the next 3 quarters performance has been  +3.6%, +2.26%  and  +1.58%.  Presidential cycle midterm performance historically would be  +5.2%  better.  We are heading into traditionally the best quarters in the market.  

Market  Outlook  and  Performance

Currently the market is still in a  "Confirmed Uptrend"  according to IBD(Investors Business Daily).  We do have an elevated count of 11  "distribution days".   Most of those days have been piled up in the last 13 trading days since Sept 5th.  A few more days of heavy selling by the institutions could very easily derail the market and the tone of the market could change to  "Uptrend Under Pressure"  just as easily.  We have seen the major indexes - $DJI, $SPY  and  $QQQ  slip down from the 8 day ema(exponential moving average all the way down to the 50 day sma(simple moving average within 3 to 5 trading days of heavy institutional selling.  We have witnessed the evidence of such institutional selling 5 times this year.  Institutions do harvest profits from the leading stocks in the leading sectors on a regular basis.  

Year to date Market performance of the 3 major indexes that I monitor is highlighted below.  I have indicated in parenthesis, where I anticipate they will be by the year end, if current momentum keeps up with the mid term Presidential cycle history :

1. $DJI      ... + 8.2%  (27,800)
2. $SPY     ... + 9.4% (306)
3. $QQQ   ... + 17.9% (200)

Recent  Breakouts

Two weeks ago, I had published a list of 10 stocks from the leading sectors of Transportation, Health Care and Retail.  8 of those stocks ($CSX, $UAL, $CTAS, $HCA, $UNH, $LOW, $GWW, $ROST) broke out in heavy volume on Friday Sept 21st while the 2 indexes - $SPY  and  $QQQ  had a distribution day.  This is what institutional support looks like.  Institutions account for  75%  to  80%  of the trading volume everyday in the market.  As a retail investor and a trader, one needs to follow the lead of the institutions.  These 8 stocks are setting up a secondary buy point now.  Some of them are extended and have already surpassed their ideal buy points.  

Mentoring  Program

If no one ever took risks, Michelangelo would have painted the Sistine floor

By  Neil Simon

Leading Growth Stock index  $QQQ  has a performance of +17.9%  year to date.  The best 3 quarters are ahead of us.  We could add another  +17.9%  performance to the leading Growth Stock index with the tail wind of the mid term Presidential cycle.

Is your portfolio lagging the leading Growth Stock Index  $QQQ? 

I am opening up just 2 more slots for our  "Mentoring Program"  for the month of October.  It will be on a first come first served basis.  Schedule a FREE 30 minutes of  "Discovery Call"  with us and secure your spot now.  Let us mentor you to profit and Out Perform the Market.  Next 3 quarters are the best times to be in the market.  Don't procrastinate and miss out on the opportunity to make a difference in your portfolio. 

Happy Trading!

Amin