Being in CASH is a Position Too

I just got back from a dinner party at my friends house and some of them were discussing the merger between  $T   and   $TWX.   They wanted to know if this would be of a benefit to $T - the acquiring company.   I am a growth stock investor and I focus my energies into looking for only those stocks that are highly accumulated by the institutions.   I also look for stocks that are trading above the    21 day ema (exponential moving average)    Currently   $T   is trading below the   200 day sma (simple moving average)   It sliced through the   200 sma   on August 16th and has been trending below it precipitously for the last 8 weeks.   This is the stock that has not been on my radar in spite of all the noise from the media about the merger.   I am mostly in  CASH   at present.   I know from history, October is a very volatile month.   It is better to hold onto   CASH   as a position right now.   Market is still under pressure with   10 distribution days  -  according to  IBD  (investors Business Daily)   There is an elevated risk under present market conditions in taking stock positions right now.   I consider   CASH    as a position too.

My Market Outlook

This week we are right in the midst of earnings season.   Lot of energy names, airlines and giant tech stocks such as $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $BIDU as well as dividend paying defense stocks such as $RTN, GD, $LMT and $UTX will be reporting earnings.   They will move the market just because of their sheer size.   $SPY   and   $DJX   have been trending below the   50 day sma   for the last 8 weeks.   $QQQ    is the only index that is hovering above the   21 day ema    This is the only area where I have been focusing my energies for the past several weeks.   $XLK (technology)   is  even  and   $XLE (energy)   is up by   +2%   since the follow thru day 4 weeks ago.   It appears that we have a sector rotation going on right now.   4 of the 9 sectors -  $XLU (Utilities),  $XLV (Health Care),  $XLP (Consumer Staples)  and  $XLF (Financials)  are trading below the 200 day sma.   It appears that institutions are investing their harvested profits in the depressed energy names.   I had mentioned to my  IBD Meetup group on September 13th that energy sector is where there might be growth stocks popping up in the next growth cycle. 

Stocks on My Watch List

1. $EMES
2. $SLCA
3. $PBR
4. $CLR
5. $FANG
6. $PXD
7. $APA
8. $PE
9. $REN
10. $CPE

Some of these stocks are extended and may provide a good short term bullish Credit Put Spread Option Trades.   I would caution my readers however that we have a lot of stocks reporting earnings this week and the market could either tumble over or punch through the resistance.   It is all up to what the institutions decide to do.   They account for over 75% of the total trading volume daily.   This is the main reason why I have chosen to be in CASH mostly at this time.   I shall lay in wait - just like a leapord in the trees - for the right opportunity to come within my striking zone for a profitable kill.   I have already done my home work over the weekend and created a trade plan for any likely scenario in the market this week.   I hope my readers have done the same.


Happy Trading!

Amin

Bears are Prowling

We are heading into the 3rd week of October and it could be a gut wrenching week.   It is one of the busiest weeks with earnings being reported by the banks, airlines, rail roads and some tech names like  $AMZN  and  $EBAY.    Market could either surge ahead or come crashing down like it did last week.   Last Monday October 10th, the leading index   $QQQ   was hovering above the    8 day ema (exponential moving average)   only to come crashing down to   34 day ema   by the end of the session.   Bears were definately in charge and none of the 9 major sectors were spared.   Currently only   $XLK (Technology)   and   $XLE (Energy)    are the leading sectors.   This is where the retail investor ought to be looking for opportunities in the market.

Market Outlook

My outlook of the market is very dim heading into the third week of October.   7 of the 9 major sectors are already trading below the   50 dma (day simple moving average)    4 of the 7 sectors   ($XLV (Health Care), $XLF (Financial), $XLU (Utilities) and $XLP (Consumer Staples)   are already heading into the bear territory, trading below or touching the   200 dma    How the institutions react to the earnings report this week will determine the direction of the market.   Using history as a guide,  I have to remind myself that major market crashes have occurred during the month of October.   It is also the month when in the year 2014,  $QQQ   surged over   +11%   from October 16th through Dec 5th   This requires for me to be totally prepared for either of those scenarios.   I would suggest to my followers to raise their trailing stops to protect profits in their positions but also to have a ready   "Watch List of Stocks"    to execute a trade, should the market take off like it did in 2014 and 2015 October

Mentoring Services 

We are planning on offering a  ONE TIME  special webinar for 90 minutes session on:

"How I Scan For Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"

It will be a very limited class size for this webinar.  If you would like to reserve a spot, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

We will post the details of the date and time as soon as we fill the class.   There are just a few spots left so don't procrastinate.   You will walk away from the session with a    "Stock Watch List"    and a   "Trade Plan"

Learn to be a successful and a profitable trader/investor from one of the seasoned trader/investor and most dynamic speaker and an award winning educator.   

Be sure to check my tweets   @ spotlightamin   Monday morning before market opens for some of the stocks that are on   "My Watch List"

Happy Trading!

Amin

Be Cautiously Bullish

We are heading into the most bullish period in the stock market.   Historically the market has returned on an average   +14.6%   from November thru April looking at the data from the last 50 years.   October traditionally has been a very volatile month with major market corrections occurring during the month.   We have also had   follow thru   days during this month where the market took off with gains of    +11% to +12.23%    within  5 to 12 weeks.   You want to be prepared and engaged with the market to take advantage of such an opportunity.   Lot of my followers and readers missed out on such an opportunity in:

1. 2013 from Oct 8th thru Dec 31 for  + 11%   gain
2. 2014 from Oct 16th thru Dec 5th for  +11%   gain
3. 2015 from Sept 28th thru Nov 3rd for  +12.23%  gain

May thru September is when everyone should have been sharpening their trading skills.   I had posted a blog on August 28th  (They are archived and you can access them)  on the subject of   Virtual Trades   Hopefully my followers have been following my lead and have learnt to prepare realistic   Trade Plans   for Loss, Profit and Time exits.   

Market Outlook

Market is currently digesting the gains from the July 1st   Follow Thru Day   We do have an elevated   distribution   days count of 4 on the   $NASDAQ   and 7 on   $SPY    We are also heading into the 3rd quarter earnings season with   $AA   entering the confessional booth on Tuesday followed by the big banks on Friday.   This will be a very volatile week since the entire  $XLF (Financial)   sector is under severe stress.   The sector dropped  -18%   on Sept 16th and has stayed below the  200 day sma    $XLK (Technology)   is still leading the pack and that is where one should be looking for opportunities.   

Results of My Virtual Trades for Last Two Weeks

I was off for a mini vacation to Disney with the family last week but I tweeted to my followers that I shall be posting the results on the 19 stocks that I did a    Virtual Trade   on two weeks ago.   My   Trade Plan   was for   +10%   profit target,   -4%   for loss target and to be out of the position prior to earnings report as a time target.   I had  9  positions for a total loss of  -22.06%  (Ouch! Ouch! Ouch!)   I also had  10  positions for a total gain of  +30.64%    (yeah!)   All 19 positions combined, I attained a profit of   +8.58%   in just 2 wks

Here are the results for each individual positions:

1. $GRUB  -0.47%
2. $GIMO  -3.34%
3. $PAYC  -1.57%
4. $VEEV  -4.0%
5. $ATVI   -0.14%
6. $STOR  -4.0%
7. $JACK  -4.0%
8. $BGS   -2.88%
9. $PKG   -1.66%
10. $UBNT   +1.20%
11. $PRAH   +3.21%
12. $LITE     +7.96%
13. $AMZN   +5.04%
14. $MELI    +1.59%
15. $ANET   + 0.06%
16. $BABA   +0.10%
17. $HQY     +3.01%
18. $APC     +8.40%
19. $WMB    + 0.07%

Mentoring Services

If you would like to learn our process of identifying winning growth stocks, sign up for our mentoring services.   we are planning on offering a   ONE TIME  special webinar for 90 minutes session on:

"How I scan for Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"

It will be a very limited class size for this webinar.   If you would like to reserve a spot, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

Happy Trading!

Amin

Market in Confirmed Uptrend

What a difference a week makes?   For the past several weeks,  $SPY  and  $QQQ  have been trading sideways.   Bulls and Bears have been playing   "Tug O War"  only to have bulls  GORED  two Fridays ago on Sept 9th.   Janet Yellen did her   YELLING  latter part of the week and spooked the bears into hiding.   $QQQ  continued to march on past the resistance of  $118.12  in volume 40% higher than average daily volume and surged above the  8 day ema (exponential moving average)   In the last 10 sessions,  $QQQ  has continued to lead and has surged  +3.54%   $SPY  on the other hand is stuck below the  50 day sma (simple moving average)  

My Market Outlook 

For the past several weeks, most of the stocks on  My Watch List  have been in the  Technology Sector  and most of the winners have also been in this sector.   That is understandable since  $QQQ  has been the leading index and   $XLK (Technology)   has been the leading sector.   All that changed on Monday September 19th when the market opened.   $XLF (Financial)   gapped down  -18%    Over  $Billion  changed hands for 5 days in a row last week in the sector.   You would have thought that all banks were going out of business!   Where did all that money get invested by the institutions?   Would you believe it was in the   $XLU (Utilities)?   Since there is going to be no rate increase  by the FEDS  until possibly in December,  institutions have chosen to invest their profits into dividend paying stocks.   $XLU   is up  +5.12%  in the last 2 weeks

I took the time this weekend to study the markets and do some analyses while the family was out for the day @ Disney Theme Park in Orlando.   I so desperately wanted to take part in it but than I had to remind myself that we just had a   "Follow Thru Day"   According to  Mr. William O'Neil of IBD   he suggests that one must buy something so as to dip your toes back in the market.   It has to be a Growth Stock that meets most of the  CANSLIM  criteria.    It is a critical time in the market since some good growth stocks just take off on such days and escape away from you from entering into a position at the right time for substantial gains.   This is one reason why every trader and investor has to stay engaged with the market even during times when the market is trending sideways.

IBD (Investor's Business Daily) Winning ETF Strategy

I am an accomplished and award winning educator and my experience as a teacher, mentor and a coach has taught me that some of the best students always prepare their  Stock Watch List  every week - regardless of the market condition.   They also do  Virtual Trades  to keep their trading skills sharp.   For the past several weeks, market has been trending sideways and most traders have lost patience.   Disciplined and patient traders in the mean time lay in the wait for the right stock to come into their view finder.   It is like a cheetah waiting patiently in the tall Savannah grass for the impala deer to come by within their striking distance for a successful hunt.

One very successful strategy to adapt is to buy   $QQQ  on a follow thru day when the market is in a   Confirmed Uptrend    Reduce your exposure to 50% of your position when the market condition changes to   Market under Pressure   CASH out your entire position when the market conditions deteriorate to   Market in Correction   This strategy has out performed  $SPY  since 2005.  This strategy produced an estimated cumulative return from   October 20th 2005 to June 30th 2016  of  +96%    while  $SPY  did only  +78%  over the same period

Mentoring Services

If you would like to learn our process of identifying winning growth stocks, sign up for our mentoring services.  We are planning on offering a one time special webinar for 60 - 90 minutes session on:

"How I scan for Growth Stocks and How I Create a Trade Plan"

We have a very limited class size for this webinar.  If you are interested in attending this webinar, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

Happy Trading!

Amin

Bulls Were  GORED  but Survived

In my post last week, I alerted my readers to the possibility of the market turning lower during the week.   Friday Sept 19th was brutal with all the 9 major sectors slicing below the  50 dma  (day moving average)   $XLK (Technology Sector)  was the only sector that was spared and it just kissed the  50 dma   and bounced off it the next day in heavy volume.   This was the only sector that was heavily supported by the institutions.   It bounced up  +2.24%  for the week while the   $SPY   got stunned and stayed around  213.38  mark for the whole week.   $QQQ  on the other hand, bounced back up   +2.63%   from the 50 dma  in volume more than 50% above average daily volume.   The strength of the market is derived from the technology names.   Most of the Stocks on my Watch List in September have been in the Technology Sector

Results of Stocks on My Watch List Last Two Weeks

There were 12 stocks listed in my post in the last two weeks.  I thought my readers would like to know how they have performed during the  carnage  in the market in the month of September.   7  stocks had a cumulative gain of  +17.24%  and 5 stocks had a cumulative loss of  -15.93%  for a total gain of  +1.28%   That was an impressive performance during one of the worst months of the year.   $SPY   results was  -2.29%  while the leading index  $QQQ  did just  +0.15%  in the same time period.   Following are the results for each of those 12 stocks:

Winners

1. $NVDA   +0.50%
2. $GRUB   (stayed within a penny)
3. $BABA   +5.43%
4. $FB       +2.02%
5. $IP        +0.14%
6. $ATVI    +5.03%
7. $AMAT  +4.12%

Losses

1. $ACIA   -0.28%
2. $EBAY  -0.38%
3. $PE      -1.96%
4. $CLR    -9.0%
5. $PBR    -4.31%

Mentoring Services

If you would like to learn our process of identifying winning growth stocks, sign up for our mentoring services.  We are planning on offering a very  Special Webinar  for  60 - 90 minutes session on

"How I scan for Growth Stocks and How I create a Trade Plan"

We will have a limited size class for this webinar.   If you are interested in attending this webinar, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

Happy Trading!

Amin

Bears Clawed the Bulls

In my post last Monday, I had a bullish bias but I also alerted my readers to the possibility of a   Counter Trend   in a heathy bullish market.  Senior fund managers came back from their 3 day Labour Day weekend and began to realign their portfolios.  They harvested their profits from the three sectors  -  $XLP (Consumer Staples),  $XLP (Consumer Discretionary) and  $XLU (Utilities)   They invested their profits in the  $XLE (Energy) and  $XLF (Financial) sectors.   Every sector had a major distribution day on Friday.   $SPY  and  $DJX  sliced through below the 50 dma (day moving average)   $QQQ  fared a little better and just kissed the 50 dma  because the institutions supported some of the tech sector names.   $QQQ  had been the leading index since the low of June 27th and had surged  +15% by August 5th  as compared to  $SPY  which had surged just +9%  in the same time period.

My Market Outlook

Friday Sept 9th, We had a major  distribution day  and lot of traders suffered major losses in their positions.   I heard from a lot of my readers who were shocked and didn't quite know what to do with their positions.  My students that I mentor, were already out of their losing positions because they had planned their trades precisely to cut their losses short.   They were prepared for an eventuality such as the one we faced on Friday.   How did they know that we would have a major distribution day on Friday?  We did not know that this would happen on Friday but we were all fully aware of the fact that September is one of our worst months in the market.  Any trades that we executed were done with a very small position.  

What is in store for us Monday morning?   I did some analyses of the  $SPY  index.  On August 21st,  2015  (Friday)  and June 24, 2016  (Friday), market was clawed by the bears and the following Monday, market got clobbered again in high volume.   $SPY  sliced through the  200 dma  in heavy volume.   Could the same thing happen again on Monday?   I don't have an answer to that but one should be prepared for such an eventuality and trade accordingly.  It would be unwise to take on a bullish position knowing what happened previously after the market corrected on Friday and what followed on Monday.   Just recently after the market corrected for 4 days from June 24th through June 27th, we had a rally for 3 days.   We had a follow thru day on July 1st and every one was in holiday spirits for July 4th.   This was the time to be in the market just when everyone had given up.   $SPY  rallied +9%  within 4 weeks while  $QQQ  rallied close to +15%

Stocks on My Watch List

Lot of stocks got clobbered this week but quite a few managed to stay above the  20 dma  while the major indexes had sliced through the  50 dma  These are the stocks that institutions are supporting.   Once the market resumes its uptrend,  these are some of the stocks that I shall be monitoring.

1. $EBAY
2. $IP
3. $PE
4. $CLR
5. $PBR
6. $FB
7. $ATVI
8. $BABA
9. $ACIA
10. $AMAT

Mentoring Service

I have had a very special request from my followers on Tweeter and Linkdin regarding a webinar for 60 - 90 minute session.  They have been asking me to give a session on:

How I Scan for Growth Stocks How I create a Trade Plan

If you are interested in attending this webinar, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com 

We will have a limited size class for this webinar.

Happy Trading!

Amin

Bulls Have The Edge

We are heading into the worst month of the year in the market.   Labour Day weekend is over and this is when all the senior fund managers and traders come back to their trading desks after relaxing and barbecuing with the family.   They realign their portfolios, harvesting profits from winning positions and deploying them into trending stocks.   Earnings is out of the way since more than 90% of S&P 500 companies have already reported their earnings.   What sectors and what specific stocks will they be deploying their harvested profits into this month?   I took the time over this long weekend to scrutinize over 100 stock charts, the 3 major indexes  - $DJX, $QQQ, $SPY -  that I monitor and read some of the commentaries from my trust worthy sources.   The trend is bullish.   We had a mediocre jobs report for August released on Friday and the market moved up.   Market sent the signal that they don't anticipate a rate increase in Sept.   

I am not a  "Day Trader"  and as such my bullish outlook is for the long term.   In any  Bullish Trend   it is quite normal to also experience a  Counter Trend   For the last 8 weeks,  $SPY   has been trading very tightly within 1%  but  $QQQ   has been trading in such a manner for only 4 weeks.  I am a   Growth Stock  investor and this is a very telling sign for me.    While  $SPY   made a gain of 10% by mid July from June 27th lows,  $QQQ   exhibited strength and continued to outperform the market for a 15% gain, for 3 more weeks past mid July.   Currently,  $XLK (Technology)  is outperforming all other sectors, pretty much in lock step and barrel fashion with the   $QQQ   That is where I am focusing my attention for profitable trades this week.  

Stocks on My Watch List

There are a lot of stocks that have been consolidating for the past several weeks and setting up a flat or three weeks tight bases.   Some of these are good candidates for adding onto your current position or for making initial buys.    

  

1. $NVDA
2. $GRUB
3. $BABA
4. $ACIA
5. $FB

Virtual Trades

In my mentoring program, my students are always asked to practice skills of trading by doing  Virtual Trades   This is a  Risk Free  way to learn to trade.   In my previous career in the airline industry,  all the pilots practiced flight operations in a   Flight Simulator   This is how they perfected their skills at flying.   Trading is very similar in that fashion too and all successful and profitable traders do this consistently.   After a while, it just becomes a habit.  Market constantly changes and the only way to keep up with it is to consistently build a  Stock Watch List  and practice virtual trades on them. 

Mentoring Service

September is an ideal month to learn and refine your trading skills.  We are filling our sessions for this month and just a few slots are left.   If you would like to schedule a FREE 30 minutes of   "Discovery Call"   to explore our mentoring services, please contact us at:

investorspotlight@gmail.com

Stop losing money trading and learn our disciplined method of building an actionable stock watch list.   Learn how to create a Trade Plan and how to mange your trades for Profit and mitigate Losses for trades that go against you.

Happy Trading!

Amin